{"id":1002787,"date":"2026-06-19T09:31:54","date_gmt":"2026-06-19T09:31:54","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/themarketperiodical.com\/krypto-prognosemaerkte-live-quoten\/"},"modified":"2026-06-19T09:31:54","modified_gmt":"2026-06-19T09:31:54","slug":"krypto-prognosemaerkte-live-quoten","status":"publish","type":"page","link":"https:\/\/themarketperiodical.com\/de\/krypto-prognosemaerkte-live-quoten\/","title":{"rendered":"Krypto-Prognosem\u00e4rkte \u2013 Live-Quoten"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Prognosem\u00e4rkte wandeln das Geld der Teilnehmer in Wahrscheinlichkeiten um. Wir beziehen Live-Quoten direkt von <a href=\"https:\/\/polymarket.com\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Polymarket<\/a> \u2013 dem gr\u00f6\u00dften Prognosemarkt \u2013 und zeigen Ihnen, was sich derzeit in den Bereichen Kryptow\u00e4hrungen, Wirtschaft, Politik, Technologie und Sport bewegt: die gr\u00f6\u00dften Quotenschwankungen des Tages, M\u00e4rkte, die kurz vor einer Entscheidung stehen, sowie einen umfassenden Screener, den Sie filtern und sortieren k\u00f6nnen.<\/p>\n<style>\n.tmp-pls{font-family:var(--font-sans,system-ui);margin:1.25rem 0 2rem}\n.tmp-pls *{box-sizing:border-box}\n.tmp-pls-stats{display:grid;grid-template-columns:repeat(4,1fr);gap:.7rem;margin-bottom:1.3rem}\n.tmp-pls-stat{border:1px solid var(--color-border,#eaeaea);border-radius:12px;padding:.85rem 1rem;background:var(--color-card,#fff)}\n.tmp-pls-stat .lab{font-size:.68rem;font-weight:700;text-transform:uppercase;letter-spacing:.05em;color:var(--color-muted,#6b6b6b)}\n.tmp-pls-stat 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anzeigen<\/h2>\n<p>Jeder der unten aufgef\u00fchrten M\u00e4rkte wird von echten H\u00e4ndlern bewertet, die echtes Kapital einsetzen. <strong>\u201eJa\u201c<\/strong> und <strong>\u201eNein\u201c<\/strong> geben die vom Markt implizierten Wahrscheinlichkeiten an, <strong>\u201e24h\u201c<\/strong> bezeichnet die Kursbewegung des vergangenen Tages und <strong>\u201e24h-Volumen\u201c<\/strong> gibt an, wie viel Geld den Besitzer gewechselt hat. 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td{border:none!important;padding:.15rem 0;text-align:right;display:flex;justify-content:space-between;align-items:center;gap:1rem}\n  .tmp-scr-tbl td.mkt{max-width:none;margin-bottom:.5rem}\n  .tmp-scr-tbl td.mkt::before{content:none}\n  .tmp-scr-tbl td[data-label]::before{content:attr(data-label);font-size:.72rem;font-weight:700;text-transform:uppercase;letter-spacing:.03em;color:var(--color-muted,#6b6b6b)}\n  .tmp-scr-probbar{max-width:none}\n}\n<\/style>\n<div class=\"tmp-scr\" data-scr>\n  <div class=\"tmp-scr-bar\">\n    <div class=\"tmp-scr-tabs\" data-scr-tabs><\/div>\n    <label class=\"tmp-scr-search\">\n      <svg viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" fill=\"none\" stroke=\"currentColor\" stroke-width=\"2\" stroke-linecap=\"round\"><circle cx=\"11\" cy=\"11\" r=\"7\"\/><path d=\"m21 21-4.3-4.3\"\/><\/svg>\n      <input type=\"search\" placeholder=\"Search markets\u2026\" data-scr-q aria-label=\"Search prediction markets\">\n    <\/label>\n  <\/div>\n  <div class=\"tmp-scr-wrap\">\n    <div class=\"tmp-scr-scroll\">\n      <table class=\"tmp-scr-tbl\">\n        <thead><tr>\n          <th class=\"mkt sortable\" data-sort=\"q\">Market<span class=\"ar\"><\/span><\/th>\n          <th class=\"sortable\" data-sort=\"yes\">Yes<span class=\"ar\"><\/span><\/th>\n          <th class=\"sortable\" data-sort=\"no\">No<span class=\"ar\"><\/span><\/th>\n          <th class=\"sortable\" data-sort=\"chg\">24h<span class=\"ar\"><\/span><\/th>\n          <th class=\"sortable\" data-sort=\"vol24\">24h Volume<span class=\"ar\"><\/span><\/th>\n          <th class=\"sortable\" data-sort=\"ends\">Ends<span class=\"ar\"><\/span><\/th>\n        <\/tr><\/thead>\n        <tbody data-scr-body><tr><td colspan=\"6\"><div class=\"tmp-scr-skel\">Loading live prediction markets\u2026<\/div><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody>\n      <\/table>\n    <\/div>\n  <\/div>\n  <div class=\"tmp-scr-foot\">\n    <span class=\"tmp-scr-live\"><i><\/i><span data-scr-count>Fetching live odds\u2026<\/span><\/span>\n    <span>Live odds via <a href=\"https:\/\/polymarket.com\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Polymarket<\/a> \u00b7 updates every 15&nbsp;min \u00b7 not financial advice<\/span>\n  <\/div>\n<\/div>\n<script>\n(function(){\n  var root=document.querySelector('[data-scr]'); if(!root) return;\n  var body=root.querySelector('[data-scr-body]'), tabsEl=root.querySelector('[data-scr-tabs]'),\n      qInput=root.querySelector('[data-scr-q]'), countEl=root.querySelector('[data-scr-count]'),\n      heads=root.querySelectorAll('th.sortable');\n  var ALL=[], state={cat:'All', q:'', sort:'vol24', dir:-1};\n  var CATORDER=['Crypto','Economy','Politics','Tech','Sports','Culture','Other'];\n\n  function pct(p){return Math.round(p*100);}\n  function money(n){n=+n||0;if(n>=1e9)return '$'+(n\/1e9).toFixed(1)+'B';if(n>=1e6)return '$'+(n\/1e6).toFixed(1)+'M';if(n>=1e3)return '$'+(n\/1e3).toFixed(0)+'K';return '$'+Math.round(n);}\n  function esc(s){var e=document.createElement('div');e.textContent=(s==null?'':s);return e.innerHTML;}\n  function endsShort(s){if(!s)return'\u2014';var d=new Date(s);if(isNaN(d))return'\u2014';return d.toLocaleDateString('en-US',{month:'short',day:'numeric',year:'numeric'});}\n  function endsLeft(s){if(!s)return'';var d=new Date(s);if(isNaN(d))return'';var ms=d-Date.now();if(ms<0)return'ended';var dd=Math.floor(ms\/864e5);if(dd>=1)return dd+'d left';var hh=Math.floor(ms\/36e5);return (hh>0?hh:1)+'h left';}\n\n  function buildTabs(){\n    var counts={All:ALL.length}; ALL.forEach(function(m){counts[m.cat]=(counts[m.cat]||0)+1;});\n    var cats=['All'].concat(CATORDER.filter(function(c){return counts[c];}));\n    tabsEl.innerHTML=cats.map(function(c){\n      return '<button class=\"tmp-scr-tab\" data-cat=\"'+esc(c)+'\" aria-pressed=\"'+(c===state.cat)+'\">'+esc(c)+'<span class=\"n\">'+(counts[c]||0)+'<\/span><\/button>';\n    }).join('');\n    Array.prototype.forEach.call(tabsEl.querySelectorAll('.tmp-scr-tab'),function(b){\n      b.addEventListener('click',function(){state.cat=b.getAttribute('data-cat');Array.prototype.forEach.call(tabsEl.querySelectorAll('.tmp-scr-tab'),function(x){x.setAttribute('aria-pressed',x===b);});render();});\n    });\n  }\n\n  function current(){\n    var q=state.q.toLowerCase();\n    var list=ALL.filter(function(m){\n      if(state.cat!=='All'&&m.cat!==state.cat)return false;\n      if(q&&m.q.toLowerCase().indexOf(q)<0)return false;\n      return true;\n    });\n    var k=state.sort,dir=state.dir;\n    list.sort(function(a,b){\n      var av,bv;\n      if(k==='q'){av=a.q.toLowerCase();bv=b.q.toLowerCase();return av<bv?-dir:av>bv?dir:0;}\n      if(k==='ends'){av=new Date(a.ends).getTime()||8e15;bv=new Date(b.ends).getTime()||8e15;}\n      else{av=a[k];bv=b[k];if(av==null)av=-1e18;if(bv==null)bv=-1e18;}\n      return (av-bv)*dir;\n    });\n    return list;\n  }\n\n  function render(){\n    var list=current();\n    Array.prototype.forEach.call(heads,function(h){\n      if(h.getAttribute('data-sort')===state.sort){h.setAttribute('aria-sort',state.dir>0?'ascending':'descending');h.querySelector('.ar').textContent=state.dir>0?'\u25b2':'\u25bc';}\n      else{h.removeAttribute('aria-sort');h.querySelector('.ar').textContent='';}\n    });\n    if(!list.length){body.innerHTML='<tr><td colspan=\"6\"><div class=\"tmp-scr-empty\">No markets match your filters.<\/div><\/td><\/tr>';countEl.textContent='0 markets';return;}\n    var H=list.map(function(m){\n      var yes=pct(m.yes),no=pct(m.no),chg=m.chg,cc='fl',ct='0.0';\n      if(chg!=null){var c=Math.round(chg*100*10)\/10;cc=c>0?'up':(c<0?'dn':'fl');ct=(c>0?'+':'')+c.toFixed(1);}\n      var el=endsLeft(m.ends);\n      return '<tr>'+\n        '<td class=\"mkt\">'+\n          '<a class=\"tmp-scr-q\" href=\"'+esc(m.url)+'\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">'+esc(m.q)+'<\/a>'+\n          '<div class=\"tmp-scr-sub\"><span class=\"tmp-scr-chip\">'+esc(m.cat)+'<\/span><span class=\"tmp-scr-tag\"><b><\/b>Polymarket<\/span>'+(el?'<span class=\"tmp-scr-ends-sub\">'+esc(el)+'<\/span>':'')+'<\/div>'+\n          '<div class=\"tmp-scr-probbar\" title=\"'+yes+'% Yes\"><b style=\"width:'+Math.max(1,Math.min(100,yes))+'%\"><\/b><\/div>'+\n        '<\/td>'+\n        '<td data-label=\"Yes\"><span class=\"tmp-scr-yes\">'+yes+'%<\/span><\/td>'+\n        '<td data-label=\"No\"><span class=\"tmp-scr-no\">'+no+'%<\/span><\/td>'+\n        '<td data-label=\"24h\"><span class=\"tmp-scr-chg '+cc+'\">'+(cc==='up'?'\u25b2 ':(cc==='dn'?'\u25bc ':''))+ct+'%<\/span><\/td>'+\n        '<td data-label=\"24h Volume\"><span class=\"tmp-scr-vol\">'+money(m.vol24)+'<\/span><\/td>'+\n        '<td data-label=\"Ends\"><span class=\"tmp-scr-ends\">'+esc(endsShort(m.ends))+'<\/span><\/td>'+\n      '<\/tr>';\n    }).join('');\n    body.innerHTML=H;\n    countEl.textContent=list.length+' of '+ALL.length+' live markets';\n  }\n\n  Array.prototype.forEach.call(heads,function(h){\n    h.addEventListener('click',function(){\n      var k=h.getAttribute('data-sort');\n      if(state.sort===k){state.dir=-state.dir;}\n      else{state.sort=k;state.dir=(k==='q'||k==='ends')?1:-1;}\n      render();\n    });\n  });\n  var t;qInput.addEventListener('input',function(){clearTimeout(t);t=setTimeout(function(){state.q=qInput.value;render();},160);});\n\n  fetch('\/wp-json\/tmp\/v1\/pm-screener',{credentials:'same-origin'}).then(function(r){return r.json();}).then(function(d){\n    ALL=(d&&d.markets)||[];\n    if(!ALL.length){body.innerHTML='<tr><td colspan=\"6\"><div class=\"tmp-scr-empty\">Live prediction markets are temporarily unavailable \u2014 please check back shortly.<\/div><\/td><\/tr>';countEl.textContent='';return;}\n    buildTabs();render();\n  }).catch(function(){body.innerHTML='<tr><td colspan=\"6\"><div class=\"tmp-scr-empty\">Live prediction markets are temporarily unavailable.<\/div><\/td><\/tr>';countEl.textContent='';});\n})();\n<\/script>\n\n<h2>Die von uns prognostizierten Verm\u00f6genswerte \u2013 Modell vs. Markt<\/h2>\n<p>F\u00fcr die von uns abgedeckten Kryptow\u00e4hrungen stellen wir die Einsch\u00e4tzungen der Marktteilnehmer unseren eigenen statistischen Prognosen gegen\u00fcber, sodass Sie erkennen k\u00f6nnen, wo sich das \u201eSmart Money\u201c und unsere Modelle einig sind \u2013 und wo nicht. \u00d6ffnen Sie eine beliebige Kryptow\u00e4hrung, um den vollst\u00e4ndigen Prognosemarkt-Bereich anzuzeigen: eine t\u00e4gliche Wahrscheinlichkeitsleiter f\u00fcr den \u201eSchlusskurs \u00fcber\u201c, Kursziele f\u00fcr einen l\u00e4ngeren Zeithorizont sowie unseren Vergleich <em>\u201eModell vs. Markt<\/em> \u201c.<\/p>\n<div class=\"tmp-pmhub-grid\" data-pmhub><div class=\"tmp-pmhub-skel\">Loading live prediction markets\u2026<\/div><\/div>\n<script>\n(function(){\n  var g=document.querySelector('[data-pmhub]'); if(!g) return;\n  function pct(p){return Math.round(p*100);}\n  function money(n){n=+n;if(n>=1e9)return '$'+(n\/1e9).toFixed(1)+'B';if(n>=1e6)return '$'+(n\/1e6).toFixed(1)+'M';if(n>=1e3)return '$'+(n\/1e3).toFixed(0)+'K';return '$'+Math.round(n);}\n  function usd(n){n=+n;return n>=1000?'$'+n.toLocaleString('en-US',{maximumFractionDigits:0}):'$'+n;}\n  function esc(s){var e=document.createElement('div');e.textContent=(s==null?'':s);return e.innerHTML;}\n  fetch('\/wp-json\/tmp\/v1\/pm-hub',{credentials:'same-origin'}).then(function(r){return r.json();}).then(function(d){\n    var cs=(d&&d.coins)||[]; if(!cs.length){ g.innerHTML='<p style=\"color:var(--color-muted)\">Live prediction markets are temporarily unavailable \u2014 please check back shortly.<\/p>'; return; }\n    var H=''; cs.forEach(function(c){ var isup=c.up!=null&&c.up>=0.5;\n      H+='<a class=\"tmp-pmhub-card\" href=\"'+esc(c.url||\"#\")+'\">';\n      H+='<div class=\"tmp-pmhub-top\"><span class=\"sym\">'+esc(c.sym)+'<\/span><span class=\"nm\">'+esc(c.name)+'<\/span><\/div>';\n      if(c.up!=null){H+='<div class=\"tmp-pmhub-up\" style=\"color:'+(isup?'var(--color-bull)':'var(--color-bear)')+'\">'+(isup?'\u25b2 ':'\u25bc ')+pct(c.up)+'%<span> '+(isup?'up':'down')+' today<\/span><\/div>';}\n      if(c.target){H+='<div class=\"tmp-pmhub-tg\">Crowd gives <b>'+pct(c.target.prob)+'%<\/b> odds of '+usd(c.target.price)+' this year<\/div>';}\n      H+='<div class=\"tmp-pmhub-meta\">'+money(c.vol)+' traded \u00b7 '+(c.count||0)+' live markets<\/div>';\n      H+='<span class=\"tmp-pmhub-cta\">'+esc(c.sym)+' odds & forecast \u2192<\/span><\/a>';\n    }); g.innerHTML=H;\n  }).catch(function(){ g.innerHTML='<p style=\"color:var(--color-muted)\">Live prediction markets are temporarily unavailable.<\/p>'; });\n})();\n<\/script>\n    \n<h2>So interpretieren Sie diese Quoten<\/h2>\n<p>Jede Zahl stellt eine vom Markt implizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit dar, die von echten H\u00e4ndlern festgelegt wird, die echtes Geld riskieren:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Ja \/ Nein<\/strong> \u2013 der Anteil der Eins\u00e4tze auf jeder Seite der Frage. Ein \u201eJa\u201c-Anteil von 70 % bedeutet, dass der Markt die Wahrscheinlichkeit, dass das Ereignis eintritt, mit 70 % bewertet.<\/li>\n<li><strong>24-Stunden-Ver\u00e4nderung<\/strong> \u2013 um wie viel sich die Wahrscheinlichkeiten im vergangenen Tag verschoben haben; eine schnell steigende Wahrscheinlichkeit deutet auf sich \u00e4ndernde Erwartungen hin, und unser Abschnitt \u201eGr\u00f6\u00dfte Ver\u00e4nderungen\u201c zeigt die st\u00e4rksten Schwankungen auf.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Volumen<\/strong> \u2013 wie viel Geld auf einem Markt im Spiel ist; ein h\u00f6heres Volumen bedeutet in der Regel ein zuverl\u00e4ssigeres Signal.<\/li>\n<li><strong>7-Tage-Trend<\/strong> \u2013 Die Sparkline bei den vorgestellten M\u00e4rkten zeigt, wie sich die Wahrscheinlichkeit der Marktteilnehmer in der vergangenen Woche entwickelt hat.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Bei M\u00e4rkten mit mehreren m\u00f6glichen Ergebnissen \u2013 beispielsweise einer Wahl, einem Titelkampf oder einer Entscheidung der Fed \u2013 zeigen wir Ihnen den aktuellen Favoriten und dessen Quoten an; \u00f6ffnen Sie den Markt auf Polymarket, um alle Kandidaten einzusehen.<\/p>\n<h2>Warum Prognosem\u00e4rkte von Bedeutung sind<\/h2>\n<p>Im Gegensatz zu Meinungsumfragen oder Analystenzielen basieren die Quoten auf Prognosem\u00e4rkten auf Kapital \u2013 die Teilnehmer erzielen nur dann einen Gewinn, wenn sie richtig liegen; daher spiegeln die Preise in der Regel schnell die gesammelten Informationen wider. Sie sagen Ihnen zwar nicht die Zukunft voraus, bieten jedoch einen transparenten und sich st\u00e4ndig aktualisierenden Einblick in die kollektiven Erwartungen des Marktes.<\/p>\n<h2>H\u00e4ufig gestellte Fragen<\/h2>\n<h3>Woher stammen diese Quoten?<\/h3>\n<p>Echtzeit-M\u00e4rkte auf Polymarket, die kontinuierlich aktualisiert werden. Wir zeigen die impliziten Wahrscheinlichkeiten an und stellen einen Link zu jedem Markt bereit, damit Sie diese selbst \u00fcberpr\u00fcfen oder damit handeln k\u00f6nnen.<\/p>\n<h3>Welche M\u00e4rkte werden abgedeckt?<\/h3>\n<p>Das Dashboard zeigt die aktivsten Live-M\u00e4rkte auf Polymarket aus den Bereichen Kryptow\u00e4hrungen, Wirtschaft, Politik, Technologie und Sport an, sortiert nach dem 24-Stunden-Handelsvolumen. Dar\u00fcber hinaus ver\u00f6ffentlichen wir spezielle Prognosen zum Vergleich zwischen Modell und Markt f\u00fcr die wichtigsten von uns abgedeckten Kryptow\u00e4hrungen \u2013 derzeit Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, XRP, Dogecoin und Chainlink.<\/p>\n<h3>Wie oft wird es aktualisiert?<\/h3>\n<p>Die Quoten, Handelsvolumina und die 24-Stunden-Ver\u00e4nderungen werden alle 15 Minuten aktualisiert; die Sparklines zeigen die Handelsaktivit\u00e4ten der letzten sieben Tage. Die Zahlen stammen direkt von Polymarket \u2013 wir nehmen keinerlei Sch\u00e4tzungen vor und erg\u00e4nzen keine Zahlen.<\/p>\n<h3>Handelt es sich hierbei um eine Finanzberatung?<\/h3>\n<p>Nein. Die Quoten auf Prognosem\u00e4rkten stellen Informationen dar, keine Empfehlungen. Kryptom\u00e4rkte und andere M\u00e4rkte sind volatil und mit hohen Risiken verbunden \u2013 f\u00fchren Sie stets Ihre eigenen Recherchen durch.<\/p>\n<p><em>Die Quoten spiegeln den Echtgeldhandel auf Polymarket wider und werden kontinuierlich aktualisiert. Nur zu Informationszwecken \u2013 keine Finanzberatung.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Prognosem\u00e4rkte wandeln das Geld der Teilnehmer in Wahrscheinlichkeiten um. Wir beziehen Live-Quoten direkt von Polymarket \u2013 dem gr\u00f6\u00dften Prognosemarkt \u2013 und zeigen Ihnen, was sich derzeit in den Bereichen Kryptow\u00e4hrungen, Wirtschaft, Politik, Technologie und Sport bewegt: die gr\u00f6\u00dften Quotenschwankungen des Tages, M\u00e4rkte, die kurz vor einer Entscheidung stehen, sowie einen umfassenden Screener, den Sie filtern \u2026<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1000001,"featured_media":0,"parent":0,"menu_order":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","template":"","meta":{"footnotes":""},"class_list":["post-1002787","page","type-page","status-publish","hentry"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/themarketperiodical.com\/de\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/1002787","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/themarketperiodical.com\/de\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/themarketperiodical.com\/de\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/page"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/themarketperiodical.com\/de\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1000001"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/themarketperiodical.com\/de\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1002787"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/themarketperiodical.com\/de\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/1002787\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/themarketperiodical.com\/de\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1002787"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}