1M Ethereum Leaves Exchanges as MVRV Turns Positive: Rally Ahead?

Key Insights:

• MVRV ratio turns positive after months of negative momentum.
• Over 1 million ETH withdrawn from exchanges in one month.
• Ethereum price has surged 70% since early April 2025.

The MVRV ratio of Ethereum turning positive suggests a potential shift in market sentiment. Meanwhile, over 1 million ETH have left exchanges.

This fueled an Ethereum price surge of more than 70% since early April. The trends suggest that holders are more confident and fewer tokens are sold on exchanges.

Ethereum Breaks Out of Negative Zone: What’s Next?

Ethereum’s MVRV ratio, previously negative for an extended period, indicated undervaluation. Its shift to positive suggests holders are in profit, which may influence market dynamics.

Data from Glassnode reveals that Ethereum has just surpassed its long-term MVRV moving average. The negative trend in the market has now been replaced by a positive one, as indicated by the green zone.

The MVRV ratio helps determine whether an asset is worth more or less than it should be. A positive MVRV value usually indicates that investors are making profits. In May 2025, the MVRV of Ethereum reached 1.4, which is its highest point since the beginning of the year.

When the MVRV moves above its 160-day moving average (red line), it often indicates a rising market. Such crossovers have usually been followed by short- to medium-term increases in price.

The movement in Ethereum price has also followed the MVRV shift. From April 2025, the ETH/USD line on the chart rises from below $1,800 to over $2,500 by mid-May. Holders are more confident now, following a period of negative trends in the market.

Over 1 Million ETH Withdrawn From Exchanges

According to on-chain data, over 1 million ETH have been removed from centralized exchanges in the last month. ETH in exchange balances dropped from 18.01 million on April 6, 2025, to 17.09 million by May 13, 2025.

This represents a decrease over the period. This means the net outflow fell by 5.1%, or 918,000 ETH.

Moving ETH from exchanges usually signals that holders aren’t planning to sell quickly. They can be transferred to a safe storage place, used for staking, or put into DeFi protocols.

When supply is less, it becomes more scarce on exchanges and can push prices up, especially when demand increases. At the same time, the Ethereum price went up from $1,579 on April 6 to $2,679 on May 13.

The 70% increase directly followed the significant withdrawals, suggesting that investors expect higher prices. A rise in price and a drop in exchange balances are generally seen as positive indicators.

Broader Altcoin Market Bounces from Key Support

After many months of poor performance, altcoins are recovering. A third chart from TradingView compares the total value of altcoins to the price of Bitcoin. The index has recently bounced off a trendline that has been in place since 2019.

The RSI shows a bullish divergence at the bottom of the chart, as it hits higher lows while the price makes lower lows. Such a pattern may indicate that selling pressure is decreasing, and the trend could reverse. The price continues to rise above a key support area held in the past.

Because altcoins tend to move together, this development is essential for Ethereum. If investors regain their confidence in the altcoin space, capital going to ETH can increase. A better performance in the altcoin market could push the ETH price up.

Ethereum Price Structure Points to Continued Uptrend

Ethereum’s short-term price action is also pointing towards a rise. The 4-hour chart of ETH/USD reveals an obvious ascending channel. Ethereum was trading at $2,558, and several higher lows formed on an ascending support line.

If things continue, the channel could go as high as $2,900. Price has tested the lower limit a few times and has bounced off, maintaining the shape of the channel.

The MACD is indicating that bearish momentum is declining. Even though it is still under the signal line, the histogram is reducing, which may point to weaker sellers.

The STDEV reading has dropped to 73.23 from a peak above 100, indicating reduced volatility. This suggests price movements are stabilizing ahead of a possible breakout.

Disclaimer

In this article, the views and opinions stated by the author or any people named are for informational purposes only. And they don’t establish the investment, financial, or any other advice. Trading or investing in cryptocurrency assets comes with a risk of financial loss.