Altcoin Season Index Hits Above 50 First Time After Feb, ETH Rally Is Just Beginning

Key Insights:

• Analysts like Michael van de Poppe point to a confirmed altcoin season as Bitcoin dominance falls below 65%.
• Since mid-April, Ethereum has surged 150%, adding $200 billion to its market cap, and has driven the bulk of the altcoin momentum.
• Ethereum’s open interest has soared by $11 billion (79%) in the last three weeks, significantly outpacing Bitcoin’s $6.7 billion rise.

While Bitcoin (BTC) price rests at $118,000 after all-time highs last week, altcoins led by Ethereum have been on a major run, raising expectations. ETH, XRP, SOL, DOGE, have all posted double-digit gains on the weekly chart, as the altcoin season index hits 50 levels for the first time since February.

Market analysts believe that this ETH rally is just the beginning, and there’s more fuel for this rally moving ahead.

Altcoin Season Index Jumps Past 50

As per Blockchain Center, the altcoin season index is now at 53 levels, last seen during February 2025. Every time the index crosses above 50 convincingly, it rallies further all the way to 75-80, wherein we see a full-blown altseason.

Popular crypto analyst Michael van de Poppe noted that the altcoin season is pretty confirmed following a bearish divergence in Bitcoin dominance. According to van de Poppe, Bitcoin’s dominance has broken decisively below the 65% mark.

It’s signaling a shift in momentum toward alternative cryptocurrencies.

“The altcoin bull market is confirmed,” van de Poppe stated, urging market participants to position accordingly. He emphasized that the second half of the year typically delivers the strongest performance for altcoins.

July has been particularly spectacular for altcoins. Although Bitcoin hit its fresh all-time highs, Ethereum led the charge with a broader market rally. ETH, SOL, XRP, and DOGE have seen major upsides in the last two weeks, gaining in the range of 10-30%.

Analyst Poppe believes that in the short term, we might as well see a sharp pullback.

Is Ethereum Alone Driving the Altcoin Season?

Since the April lows, Ethereum price has surged by a massive 150% while adding $200 billion to its market cap. Although other altcoins have joined the party, popular analyst Benjamin Cowen stated that it’s not the overall market, but Ethereum that is driving the altcoin season entirely.

Crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen says Bitcoin dominance (BTC.D) has once again been rejected at a key Fibonacci level, reinforcing expectations of a short-lived altcoin rally. According to Cowen, BTC.D was rejected at the 0.786 Fib level (around 66%), similar to its rejection at the 0.618 level (60%) last year.

Cowen noted that while the rise in ETH/BTC is currently driving the broader ALT/BTC uptrend, altcoins are still underperforming relative to Ethereum. “ALT/ETH is bleeding, so ETH is better than ALTs,” he explained.

Cowen shared that amid the ETH price rally since mid-April, the TOTAL 3 market cap, excluding Bitcoin and ETH, has been dropping.

Historically, ALT/BTC pairs have found local bottoms in June from 2022 to 2025. However, Cowen predicts the ongoing altcoin rally could peak by late August. Then, he expects a renewed BTC.D rally during the September–October window.

Ethereum Dominates the Speculative Rally Over Bitcoin

According to a new report by 10x Research, Ethereum is witnessing a more aggressive buildup in speculative positioning compared to Bitcoin. Over the past three weeks, Ethereum’s open interest has surged by $11 billion, a 79% increase. During the same period, Bitcoin’s open interest rose by $6.7 billion.

The sharp uptick in ETH positions pushed funding rates from 5% to 15%, as leveraged futures positions accumulated rapidly. Open interest for Ethereum jumped from $8 billion in mid-April to $25 billion, signaling rising market activity.

However, 10x Research pointed out that despite the sharp rally, Ethereum’s funding rates remain relatively moderate. It suggests that the ongoing rally is driven by leveraged speculation and also supported by strong spot market buying.

Disclaimer

This article is for informational purposes only and provides no financial, investment, or other advice. The author or any people mentioned in this article are not responsible for any financial loss that may occur from investing in or trading. Please do your research before making any financial decisions.