Here’s Why the Ethereum Price Could Bounce Back Stronger

Ethereum (ETH) price action has been falling consistently since October 10th. At that time, the entire market crashed following massive liquidations. ETH alongside Bitcoin (BTC) has led the sector in this drop, though times seem to be changing.

Among the hints of a potential rebound are smart money involvement and chain activity. On top of that, the technical outlook was also aligning with the looming bounce. However, will this materialize?

Ethereum Price Prediction: Will Higher Timeframe Support Hold?

On the charts, Ethereum showed that its price was in a free fall. The price action moved back down from the $4,800 distribution zone on the three-day chart. This zone was marked as the previous cycle’s high and rejection area.

Interestingly, the Ethereum price pullback has stopped near $2,933. It is in line with the $2,800–$2,850 support band. This zone has acted as a resistance in 2024 and 2025.

Holding above this area in place keeps the market structure neutral to bullish. This gives it room to bounce back toward the $3,400 and $4,000 levels.

In case the price broke cleanly below $2,800, it could weaken the structure. This would open up $2,160 and possibly $1,520, which are the lower-range support levels.

In the meantime, momentum suggested that the market would consolidate. However, an increase in volume and other network activities that impact price will likely determine the direction.

What is the Smart Money Saying about Ethereum Price?

Ethereum price and the balances of wallets that hold between 10,000 and 100,000 ETH showed direct correlation in most cases. The activity indicated that holders were changing their strategies. Thereby, this increases the likelihood of a price reversal.

Smart money accumulation grew steadily from 2018 to 2021. Balances climbed from about 9 million ETH. They surpassed 15 million ETH during this period. The price advanced toward the $1,000 peak at the time.

However, balances stayed flat between 2021 and late 2022. The flatness suggested that holders were quiet with slight distribution as the price dropped below $1,000. However, a recovery followed. This trend was influenced by the rise in holder balances from 2022 to mid-2023.

In 2024, holdings dropped, though they stayed around 10–12 million ETH. The price, on the other hand, stayed between $1,800 and $4,000, which indicated that people were less sure.

The big jump in 2025, with balances quickly surpassing 21 million ETH, indicated that large holders were starting to buy more.

Such growth could help keep prices stable, coinciding with the potential bottom on the charts. However, quick rises could also come before periods of volatility or distribution.

Ethereum’s TVL Over The Past 5 Years

Lastly, Token Terminal’s data indicated how ETH’s price and Ethereum’s economic size were correlated through TVL. This TVL has been a valuation floor for more than five years.

Currently, ETH’s fully diluted market cap stood at $353 billion, while TVL was at $329.9 billion. This meant that the two were worth 1.1 times each other.

These charts showed how TVL had grown from protocols like Tether, Circle, Aave, Lido Finance, Sky, EigenCloud, and BitGo, among others. It went from almost nothing in 2020 to its current highs. This trajectory was similar to how ETH’s market cap had changed.

If ETH’s TVL reached $1 trillion, it could result in raising the price of ETH. This is especially because institutional inflows and the growth of stablecoins were expected to increase TVL by 10 times by 2026.

Adding all these together, ETH prices could bounce, though the entire market needed to flip bullish with it.