XRP Price at Risk of a 15% Crash as Odds of CLARITY Act Passing Falls on Kalshi

XRP price continued its downtrend on Sunday as cryptocurrency demand stayed muted. The Senate’s declining support for the CLARITY Act added further pressure. Ripple token dropped to $1.2900, its lowest level since February 27.

Kalshi Odds of CLARITY Act Passing This Year are Falling

Traders on Kalshi are betting against the Senate passing the CLARITY Act this year. Divisions over stablecoin yield remain a key obstacle.

Data shows that odds that the bill will be passed this year dropped to 51% from over 80% a few months ago. Odds that it will be passed before August dropped to 35%, while before July dropped to 17%.

The falling odds reflect concerns raised by John Deaton, former Ripple Labs lawyer. He noted the bill could become toxic later this year as U.S. Senators shift focus to the November midterm elections.

The other big risk is that the Senate may see some major changes after the elections. Data on Polymarket shows that most traders believe that Democrats will retake the Senate and the House of Representatives.

If this happens, it means that the Senate Majority Leader will be the one responsible for bringing new bills to the floor. Chances are that Chuck Schumer will not bring the Market Structure Bill to the floor. Instead, Democrats will focus on passing bills to undo most of Donald Trump’s policies.

The CLARITY Act has come under pressure in the past few months because of the stablecoin yield issue. This has divided banks and companies in the crypto industry.

Banks have vehemently rejected the view that crypto companies like Coinbase and Kraken should pay interest on stablecoin balances. They argue that these yields will remove funds from their institutions. It’s a move that will affect lending to individuals and companies.

A recent compromise made in collaboration with the White House was rejected by some notable companies like Coinbase. The compromise was that crypto companies would be able to pay rewards based on user activity.

CLARITY Act May Impact XRP Price

The CLARITY Act may have an impact on the XRP price. That’s because Ripple Labs is one of the biggest stablecoin issuers in the United States. Data shows that the Ripple USD (RLUSD) stablecoin is one of the top stablecoins in the industry, with over $1.5 billion in assets.

RLUSD has grown steadily since its 2024 launch. Artemis data shows over $7.8 billion in volume during the last 30 days, while active addresses rose to more than 14.6k.

If the CLARITY Act fails, or if it passes with banks’ recommendations, RLUSD demand may stay weak. Investors could prefer dollar savings that offer monthly returns instead.

XRP price is also facing more risks, including the upcoming escalation between the United States and Iran.

Donald Trump has threatened to intensify his bombing campaign against Iranian civil infrastructure, calling Tuesday Power Plant Day. Such attacks will lead to more market volatility and higher energy prices.

XRP Price Prediction: Technical Analysis

Ripple token has been in a strong downward spiral in the past few weeks. It has dropped to $1.2800, down sharply from the all-time high of $3.667.

The coin has constantly remained below the Supertrend indicator since October last year. It’s a sign that bears remain in control. The coin remains below the 50-day moving average and the Ultimate Support level of the Murrey Math Lines tool at $1.5625.

Therefore, the most likely XRP price prediction is bearish, with the initial target being the psychological level at $1. That’s about 22% below the current level.

This view will be confirmed if it moves below the year-to-date low of $1.1150. On the other hand, a jump above the Ultimate Support at $1.5624 will invalidate the bearish outlook.