Key Insights:
- XRP price breakout targets a 51% upside amid a bullish triangle structure.
- April 16, 21 events could reshape XRP’s legal and institutional future.
- $300M outflows signal cautious sentiment despite technical bullishness.
The XRP price chart hints at a 51% rally as two crucial events—Ripple’s SEC response and potential SWIFT partnership—converge in April. They are fueling speculation of a major shift in XRP’s trajectory.
Ripple’s Legal Deadline and SWIFT Rumors Drive XRP Focus
XRP price is trading near a key resistance at $2.22 ahead of two major dates this week, which could shape its legal and institutional future.
April 16 marks Ripple’s final deadline to respond to the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) in its long-running legal battle. The same week, speculation is rising over a possible SWIFT announcement on April 21, with some investors pointing to Ripple’s earlier involvement in distributed ledger pilots.
John Squire, a long-time XRP observer, described those dates as “possibly the most important” in the asset’s history. In a recent post, he said, “If the lawsuit ends on the 16th, and SWIFT confirms the integration on the 21st, XRP’s narrative shifts… From survival to dominance.”
Ripple has not confirmed any partnership with SWIFT, but the timing has fueled retail speculation. In 2023, Ripple participated in SWIFT-led interoperability pilot programs. Besides, SWIFT’s latest research includes references to blockchain networks for cross-border settlements.
XRP Price Technical Chart Points to 51% Upside Breakout
On-chain sentiment has remained mixed, but XRP’s chart presents a strong bullish argument.
A symmetrical triangle pattern has formed on the daily chart, according to the TradingView chart. The pattern, if resolved to the upside, offers a measured move projection of 51%, which would lift the price toward $3.20. That would mark a sharp rise from the current level near $2.12.
Ali Martinez, a crypto market analyst, noted that XRP is trading within an ascending triangle. “A breakout above $2.22 could pave the way for $2.40,” he wrote in a post earlier today.
The same setup includes a five-wave Elliott structure, with XRP appearing to complete its fourth wave in early April. If the fifth wave unfolds as projected, the price could hit the upper resistance zone drawn at $3.56.
The 50-day and 200-day exponential moving averages are currently at $2.23 and $1.95, respectively, with XRP hovering between the two.
Mixed Sentiment Amid $300 Million in April Outflows
Despite the bullish structure, network data shows traders remain cautious. According to Coinglass, XRP has seen over $300 million in outflows so far in April.
Outflows have dominated nine out of the first 13 days, with only $56.08 million in inflows. The largest outflow occurred on Apr. 6, totaling $90 million.
These numbers suggest many traders used the recent uptick to exit positions, especially after a weak March. April’s outflow trend remains lower than January and March, which recorded single-day outflows as high as $150 million.
However, the absence of consistent inflows may undermine any sustained upside, especially if legal and institutional catalysts fail to materialize.
Analysts Remain Split Over Short-Term XRP Price Action
Egrag Crypto, an analyst known for his long-standing bullish XRP outlook, warned that the coin could dip toward $1.40 before any breakout. Still, he maintained that major targets between $7.50 and $27 remain valid in the long run.
Meanwhile, Ali Martinez said XRP price could rally 17% if it breaks out of its current triangle formation. That would lift the price closer to the technical target of $2.40, aligned with upper resistance zones drawn since early February.
XRP’s price action now reflects a delicate balance between long-term optimism and short-term caution. The ascending triangle pattern hints at further upside, while the ongoing outflows underscore investor hesitation.
If Ripple resolves its legal battle and secures institutional support via SWIFT, the narrative could shift decisively. Until then, traders remain fixated on Apr. 16 and Apr. 21 as dates that could shape XRP price next major move.
Disclaimer
In this article, the views, and opinions stated by the author, or any people named are for informational purposes only, and they don’t establish the investment, financial, or any other advice. Trading or investing in cryptocurrency assets comes with a risk of financial loss.
