Key Insights:
- Bitcoin struggles at $95K as traders await a clear breakout catalyst.
- Crowd greed spikes to highest level since Trump’s 2024 election victory.
- Ark Invest forecasts Bitcoin could hit $2.4M per coin by 2030.
Bitcoin (BTC) approached a critical resistance zone after topping $95,000 on Apr. 25, as traders grew cautious over the sustainability of its latest rally.
Data from TradingView showed BTC/USD rising to new seven-week highs before encountering strong selling pressure. Bitcoin preserved its yearly open at $93,500 during Wall Street trading hours but struggled to maintain upward momentum.
Buyers and Sellers Lock Horns at $95K
Short-term volatility surged as BTC liquidated leveraged shorts above $95,000. According to CoinGlass, the move helped clear upside liquidity, yet doubts persisted among analysts about the breakout’s strength.
Popular trader Daan Crypto Trades pointed to Bitcoin reclaiming the Bull Market Support Band, a technical indicator comprising several key moving averages. He said a weekly close above this range would strengthen bullish arguments for new highs, provided BTC holds above support.
Still, concerns lingered. Trader Skew observed intense competition between a large-volume buyer and seller, warning that a volatility spike could follow once one side capitulates.
Material Indicators cofounder Keith Alan added to the cautious outlook, highlighting lower volumes and repeated price wicks below the yearly open. He stated that a pump above $95,000 without a strong catalyst would likely represent a short squeeze rather than organic demand.
“For me, a pump above $95K would invalidate the new signal, but I’d probably consider such a move to be a short squeeze unless we have a catalyst with some substance behind it,” Alan wrote.
Altcoin Sherpa Eyes Key Higher Low Formation
Analyst Altcoin Sherpa underscored the importance of Bitcoin’s next local low in maintaining bullish momentum. He said on X that holding above $90,000 would be “great” for bulls, while a breakdown below that level would risk invalidating the rally.
Meanwhile, Ali Charts described the current price zone around the yearly open as a “tough cookie,” suggesting strong buyer-seller indecision remains in play.
Crowd Greed Surges to Election-Era Levels
Data from Santiment indicated that the current greed levels measured across platforms are the highest since Nov. 5, 2024, when Donald Trump was elected. The firm noted that while retail optimism surged, a flat weekend or mild retrace could trigger profit-taking among smaller investors.
“If they sell here because they think we are seeing a top, whales would likely scoop up those coins and potentially push Bitcoin above $100K in the next 1-2 weeks,” Santiment analysts added.
The shift in crowd sentiment highlights the growing divergence between retail traders, who are turning bullish, and seasoned traders, who urge caution at elevated levels.
Ark Invest Levels Up Bitcoin Price Forecast
In a longer-term view, Ark Invest updated its bullish forecast for Bitcoin. Its latest report estimated a potential price target of $2.4 million per coin by 2030 when factoring in active supply dynamics.
Ark Invest explained that roughly 40% of Bitcoin’s total supply remains “vaulted,” meaning long-held or lost coins that reduce sell-side pressure. Using this adjusted figure, Ark’s updated models predict a base bear-case price of $500,000 and a bull-case price of $2.4 million.
Ark’s projections reflect broader optimism among Bitcoin proponents. MicroStrategy chairman Michael Saylor and Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong have also forecast multi-million dollar Bitcoin prices in the coming decades.
0xNobler, another analyst, said Bitcoin had entered its “acceleration phase,” projecting a cycle top of around $260,000 and suggesting that altcoins could soon outperform.
Bitcoin’s battle at $95,000 reflects an ongoing tug-of-war between cautious traders and an increasingly euphoric crowd. While short-term sentiment remains optimistic, technical and macro signals suggest caution until Bitcoin can secure a weekly close well above key resistance levels.
Disclaimer
In this article, the views and opinions stated by the author or any people named are for informational purposes only, and they don’t establish the investment, financial, or any other advice. Trading or investing in cryptocurrency assets comes with a risk of financial loss.
