Top 3 Reasons MSTR Stock Price May Dive to $100 in 2026

MSTR stock price crashed by 48% in 2025, making it the worst-performing constituent company in the Nasdaq 100 Index. Strategy was trading at $155 today, Dec. 31, down by 67% from its highest point this year. It is trading at its lowest point since September, and signs indicate that it will continue to fall.

MSTR Stock Price Technical Analysis is Highly Bearish

The weekly timeframe chart shows that the Strategy stock price has more downside to go in the near term. It has already dropped below the important support level at $234, the lowest level in March this year. It was the neckline of the double-top pattern, a common bearish sign.

The stock has plunged below the important support level at $215, the 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement level. Additionally, it has moved below all moving averages and the Supertrend indicator, a sign that bears remain in control.

Top oscillators, such as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and the Commodity Channel Index (CCI), have all pointed downwards, while the Average Directional Index (ADX) has pointed upwards, indicating that the downward momentum is accelerating.

Therefore, the most likely MSTR stock price forecast is highly bearish, with the next key target being at the 78.6% retracement level at $125. A drop below that price will bring the next target at the psychological level at $100.

Bitcoin Price Technical Analysis Also Suggests it Has More Downside to Go

Strategy has grown to become the biggest Bitcoin holder in the world, with over 672,497 coins valued at nearly $50 billion in its balance sheet. The company’s business is typically affected by Bitcoin’s performance, and technical indicators suggest that the coin has more downside potential.

The weekly timeframe chart shows that the coin is in the process of forming a bearish pennant pattern, which typically forms after a steep decline. This crash resembles a flagpole, with the coin currently forming a symmetrical triangle whose two lines are converging.

The coin has moved below the Supertrend indicator and the 50-week and 100-week Exponential Moving Averages (EMA). Most importantly, the coin previously formed a highly bearish rising wedge pattern, characterized by two converging trendlines.

Therefore, these technicals suggest that the coin will likely drop to the November low of $80,450. A drop below that level will point to further decline to $74,500, its lowest level in April this year.

Such a move will bring the company’s Bitcoin holdings to $50 billion, down from the current $59 billion.

Increased Dilution is Highly Bearish for the Strategy Stock

The other major risk that may push the MSTR stock price to $100 is the company has continued to dilute its existing shareholders.

Data shows the number of outstanding shares has been in a strong uptrend since it started its Bitcoin accumulation strategy. Its common outstanding shares jumped from 77 million in 2021 to the current 267 million.

This dilution has accelerated in the past few months as the company has relied on its at-the-market (ATM) share sales to fund its Bitcoin purchases.

For example, the company sold shares worth over $1.08 billion last week to fund its 1,229 Bitcoin purchases. As the chart below shows, the company has nearly $12 billion remaining in its ATM that it can raise.

For a long time, investors were comfortable with the dilution as the stock was trading at a premium to its net asset value (mNAV). Recently, however, the mNAV has dropped below 1, a sign that the premium has dropped.

The mNAV based on the market capitalization has dropped to 0.749, while the one based on the enterprise value has slumped to 0.974.

To sum it up: MSTR stock price has been in a strong downward trend, and technicals suggest that it has more room to go, potentially to the psychological level at $100