Key Macro Events Impacting Crypto Market Next Week

The crypto market could be facing major volatility next week amid a set of macro events scheduled ahead. So far, Bitcoin has been showing strength and is flirting with $64,400 even with the crash in KOSPI and Nikkei 225 a few days before. Market experts are weighing the odds of whether this is the beginning of a trend reversal or just a relief rally.

Crypto Market To Face Volatility Amid Macro Shift

Global markets are set for a busy week of economic data releases, central bank decisions, and major corporate earnings. Experts believe that it could drive major volatility across asset classes, including the crypto market.

On Monday, July 20, investors will focus on China’s interest rate decision. The outcome could majorly influence the trading across Asian markets, thereby leading to big moves in the crypto market as well.

Later on Wednesday, Japan will announce its trade balance data, which could impact Yen. While in the US, the market would keenly watch for earnings reports coming from Tesla and Alphabet.

Later on Thursday, global market will be watching the interest rate decisions at the European Central Bank (ECB), US jobless claims, and Intel’s quarterly earnings. The unwinding of the AI trade has already triggered some selling pressure in the crypto market last week.

On Friday, the United States will release flash PMI data and new home sales data. It will provide a fresh outlook in the economic activity and the health of the housing market.

Will Bitcoin Lead the Crypto Market In July?

The Bitcoin price movement has always been a leading indicator for what happens in the crypto market ahead. Historically, July has been a strong month for Bitcoin, and thus, the overall crypto market.

So far this month, Bitcoin price has gained by a healthy 3% and is looking for a breakout above $65,000. Data from Coinglass shows that if BTC follows a trajectory similar to July 2016 or July 2019, it could lead to an overall gain of around of 20%.

However, considering the average returns in July, Bitcoin price could jump another 10% and climb towards the $70,000 mark.

Over the past two weeks of July, spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $264 million in net inflows along with BTC price reclaiming $64,000 levels. It marks the reversal from sustained outflows seen in May and June.

The return to positive ETF flows suggests renewed institutional demand for Bitcoin. Santiment analysts noted that the recovery in ETF inflows signals improving investor confidence in the crypto market as Bitcoin continues to regain momentum.

Is It Bitcoin Trend Reversal or Relief Rally?

Popular crypto market analyst Crypto Patel cautioned about Bitcoin’s recent rebound. He added that unless the BTC price reclaims the cost basis of short-term holders, this trend reversal is not certain.

According to the analyst, Bitcoin remains below the average acquisition price of investors who have held the asset for one to six months. As per Crypto Patel, the recent BTC price upside looks more like a relief rally rather than a confirmed trend reversal. He said that a sustainable bull market will begin only after the short-term holders return to profit.

Analyst Michael van de Poppe said Bitcoin’s latest rally reflects a typical weekend move. Thus, he expects some retracement taking place on Monday, July 20, along with volatility in global market.

Despite anticipating a short-term pullback, the analyst noted that subdued market volatility suggests a significant price move could be imminent.

Van de Poppe added that he expects the next major move to be to the upside and said he is currently fully allocated to altcoins. He maintains a bullish outlook on the broader crypto market.