XRP Price Risks 22% Drop as Whale Wallets Fall to 339 in October

XRP price hovered near $1.29 on Oct. 26 as declining whale wallet counts raised selling concerns. Exchange balances also increased, prompting analyst Ali Martinez to warn about further downside.

Martinez identified $1.26 as critical support, with $1.11 and $0.98 as potential downside targets. Meanwhile, Dark Defender presented a contrasting Elliott Wave forecast targeting $7.07.

XRP Price Prediction as Whale Wallets Fall to 339

The number of XRP wallets holding between 10 million and 100 million tokens dropped from 351 to 339 over the past few weeks. That represents a decline of 12 wallets in one of the largest holder groups that Santiment tracks. The latest reading marks the lowest count in the recent series as of October 25, 2026.

The decrease followed several smaller changes during the period. Whale wallets stood near 350 at the beginning of the chart before falling below 345. The count later stabilized briefly around 344, then resumed its decline and reached 339.

Large holders can influence the amount of XRP available in the market when they move or sell substantial positions. However, a falling wallet count does not establish that all 12 addresses sold their holdings. Wallets can also leave the tracked group when their balances fall below 10 million XRP.

XRP Exchange Balances Increase by Nearly 50M Tokens

Exchange-held XRP rose from 11.003 billion to approximately 11.05 billion tokens. The difference amounts to roughly 47 million XRP, which the analyst rounded to about 50 million. Exchange balances remained near the upper end of their recent range during the past week.

The increase came as the number of large-holder wallets declined. More XRP on trading platforms means exchanges hold a larger supply that users could potentially sell. The balance figures do not, however, show how much of that supply holders intend to trade.

Balances climbed early in the period, eased for several sessions, then recovered toward 11.05 billion XRP. The most recent bar remained above 11.04 billion, close to the recent high near 11.06 billion.

XRP Price Faces a Test of $1.26 Support

The $1.26 level marks the lower boundary of a price channel that XRP has developed since August. XRP traded around $1.30 at the time of writing, up 2% in just 24 hours.

A move below $1.26 would open the downside scenario outlined by Ali Charts. The first target stands at $1.11, followed by $0.98 if the decline extends. A fall from $1.26 to $0.98 would equal about 22%, although the forecast depends on support breaking.

The chart also places $1.34 and $1.43 above the recent price. XRP previously traded above both levels before dropping toward the channel floor. The analyst’s bearish projection remains conditional, rather than a report of a completed breakdown.

Analyst Projects XRP Crypto Rally Toward $7.07

Dark Defender presented a different XRP price prediction using an Elliott Wave analysis of the three-day chart. The analyst compared the pattern seen in October 2026 with conditions in October 2024. The analyst identified a Wave 1 structure dating to November 2024 on the longer-term chart.

The projection treats the current period as a stage before a stronger third wave. The analyst expects the next advance to reach approximately $7.07 and pointed to November as the possible period for renewed upward movement. The chart labels that area near the 361.8% Fibonacci extension at $7.0786.

The projection includes intermediate Fibonacci levels at $1.57, $1.88, $2.90, and $4.10. A further break above $7 could lead the top altcoin to $10.11.

This article provides information, not financial advice. Cryptocurrency investments carry substantial volatility and potential losses. Readers should conduct independent research before making investment decisions.