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Key Insights:
- Bitcoin passed its bull cycle midpoint in March, signaling a possible peak ahead.
- Long-term holders are taking profits, hinting at caution among experienced investors.
- Bitcoin faces key resistance at $87.5K, with a breakout or rejection likely to shape the trend.
Bitcoin price USD seems to be nearing the final phase of its bull cycle. The convergence of key on-chain and technical factors indicates this.
Analysts observe key market dynamics, with BTC price hovering around $83,000. Capital rotation, chart formations, and whale activity signal a potential peak.
Bull Cycle Midpoint Passed in March, Says Crypto Dan
On-chain analyst Crypto Dan believes that Bitcoin price USD already passed its cycle midpoint in March 2024. He cited the volume of BTC traded between 6 and 12 months as a critical metric.
According to Dan, that first decline occurred in March. If historical patterns hold, BTC price could now be in the late stages of this rally.
The same metric has accurately tracked bull market rotations in past cycles. It reflected the amount of fresh capital entering and exiting positions.
Bitcoin Price USD Technical Setup Aligns With Bullish Sentiment
Captain Faibik flagged a falling wedge on the daily BTC/USD chart. A breakout above the wedge would signal renewed upside momentum.
Faibik warned that if Bitcoin price USD clears that resistance, short sellers could face quick liquidations. The falling wedge is a well-known bullish reversal pattern. It typically leads to a steep upside after the price breaks resistance and undergoes a retest.
Whales Take Profits as Long-Term Holders Exit
Meanwhile, on-chain activity suggests some early movers are securing gains. Ali Martinez observed long-term holders moving more than 1,058 BTC in a single day.
That marks a rare movement of dormant supply, often interpreted as profit-taking during overheated markets.
When long-term wallets begin selling, it can indicate that experienced holders see the upside as limited. These movements tend to occur near market tops.
This coincides with analyst Altcoin Sherpa’s current stance. He recently exited active positions around $83,000 and is now waiting on the sidelines.
His caution echoes growing uncertainty around short-term upside.
Speculative Calls Fuel Retail Euphoria
Despite on-chain warnings, some market corners are leaning into bullish extremes. 0xNobler projected a parabolic move starting April 5, predicting BTC price to hit $200,000. He claimed altcoins would “pump 100x in 3 weeks.”
While such forecasts often go viral during hype cycles, they offer little technical backing.
He remarked that today could be the final opportunity to achieve millionaire status. Following this, he shared a selection of tokens claiming potential 100-200x gains.
Analysts typically dismiss these calls as retail-driven euphoria. They warn against chasing unrealistic targets based on emotion or virality.
Key Resistance Zones and Caution Ahead
Bitcoin price USD is currently encountering resistance at the $87,500 level. Bulls will require strong volume confirmation to overcome this critical threshold for a sustained breakout.
So far, the Bitcoin price USD has failed to close above this zone. Combined with profit-taking and bearish RSI divergence, the market may soon slow down.
Crypto Dan warned that the second drop in the 6-12 month volume ratio could arrive anytime, signaling a peak. If that occurs, BTC price may face corrections before stabilizing.
However, until then, traders continue watching $87.5K as the line in the sand. The coming days may determine whether this cycle continues upward—or begins its final descent.
Disclaimer
In this article, the views and opinions stated by the author or any people named are for informational purposes only. And they don’t establish the investment, financial, or any other advice. Trading or investing in cryptocurrency assets comes with a risk of financial loss.
