Bitcoin Price Eyes $112K in July as Long-Term Holders Realize $2.4B Profit

Key Insights:

• Bitcoin price holds steady despite $2.4B in realized profits.
• July historically delivers strongest Bitcoin monthly returns since 2013.
• Long-term holders shift market control to newer investor cohorts.

Bitcoin price stays firm near $106K despite $2.4B in realized profits by long-term holders. Historical July trends and technical setups now hint at a potential breakout above $112K.

Profit-Taking Intensifies, But Bitcoin Price Holds Firm Above $100K

Bitcoin (BTC) has traded within a tight range around $106,000 in early July, despite a wave of profit-taking by long-term holders. On-chain data shows daily realized profits climbed to $2.46 billion, while the 7-day average reached $1.52 billion well above the 2025 average of $1.14 billion.

Glassnode data confirms that wallets holding Bitcoin for over three years have led the sell-off. Coins aged 3–5 years realized $849 million in profits, followed by $485 million from the 7–10 years cohort. Meanwhile, holders in the 1–2 year range cashed out $445 million.

Despite the scale of these exits, the market has largely absorbed the pressure. CryptoQuant’s Yonsei Dent described the situation as “net positive,” noting that rising activity among older coins often signals confidence during bull cycles.

“The consistent appearance of older coin movement is a positive signal in a bull cycle,” Dent said.

Bitcoin Price Stabilizes as Market Leadership Rotates

The data also shows a structural shift underway. Dent explained that newer cohorts, especially those holding BTC for one to three years, are now realizing profits and potentially taking the lead.

“This suggests a transition of market leadership from older holders to newer ones,” he said.

Supporting this, Spent Output Age Bands and Binary Coin Days Destroyed show increased movement among previously dormant coins. This pattern typically reflects a healthy rotation rather than panic-driven exits.

Darkfost added that unrealized profits among long-term holders have declined to levels last seen in Oct. 2024. The average unrealized profit, measured by the Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio, currently stands at 220%, down from 300% in March and 350% in Dec. 2024.

For BTC to match the previous cycle’s tops, the price would need to climb to $140,000, according to Darkfost. The realized price for long-term holders is now around $39,000.

Technical Breakout Eyed Above $112K

Traders are now focused on key resistance zones. According to Daan Crypto Trades, the $112,000 mark represents a crucial breakout level on the high timeframe.

“The levels that really matter on the high timeframe, are clear,” the analyst posted on X. The chart shared shows a descending triangle compressing below all-time highs, with a breakout potentially confirming a bullish continuation.

Bitcoin has traded within this consolidation structure since mid-June. The range spans approximately $100,000 to $112,000, with downside support holding above $98,000.

CryptoCon pointed to the “Cycle 4 Ranges Expansion” phase, which has lasted over 195 days. Of that, only 36 days saw decisive price action. The pattern reflects a historical Bitcoin trait—long sideways phases preceding rapid expansions.

If history repeats, the next phase could see BTC spike toward $140,000–$150,000 before entering a new cooling period, CryptoCon added.

July Rally in Focus as Historical Trends Support Bulls

Market optimism in July is rooted in historical performance. Data from Coinglass shows Bitcoin has averaged a 7.56% gain in July since 2013. Eight of the last 12 Julys closed green, including a 24.03% jump in 2020.

Importantly, BTC has never posted a drop greater than 10% during July.

Money Guru Digital cited these statistics and expressed optimism for a fresh all-time high this month. “July is historically a bullish month with strong returns,” the trader wrote.

The correlation between Bitcoin and U.S. equities may also be reinforcing sentiment. The S&P 500 closed June with its highest-ever monthly close. Historically, Bitcoin tends to follow equity strength in Q3, especially during July.

Consolidation Ahead of Expansion?

Despite profit-taking and technical resistance, current indicators suggest BTC remains positioned for a breakout.

The presence of long-term holder activity, stable price performance, and supportive macro trends may all converge in July.

While caution remains amid overhead resistance, the narrative shaping around July’s bullish seasonality and historical breakout windows could attract renewed buyer attention. For now, the $112,000 level acts as the key battleground for the next leg of Bitcoin’s cycle.

Disclaimer

This article is for informational purposes only and provides no financial, investment, or other advice. The author or any people mentioned in this article are not responsible for any financial loss that may occur from investing in or trading. Please do your research before making any financial decisions.