Bitcoin Holds $108K Amid Macro Shifts, Derivatives Reset

Key Insights:

• Bitcoin holds $108K as tariff delay eases macro pressure.
• Derivatives reset hints at bullish momentum returning.
• Exchange supply hits record low, boosting long-term holder confidence.

BTC clings to support as traders weigh tariff delays, institutional demand, and options market reset.

Bitcoin (BTC) traded at $107,981 on Monday, stabilizing within a narrow $107,300–$110,600 range since last Wednesday. The muted price action followed a turbulent weekend in the derivatives market and a notable delay in U.S. import tariffs, stoking speculation of a breakout toward $120,000.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent extended the deadline for tariff enforcement against Japan and South Korea. Initially set for July 5, the new implementation date now falls on Aug. 11. The extension eased investor concerns over a trade standoff, providing room for risk assets to rebound.

Market analyst TedPillows described the delay as a “green signal” for Bitcoin’s next leg up. He noted on X that BTC continues to lag the global monetary supply chart. If historical correlation resumes, the move could justify a rise to $120,000.

“Bitcoin’s price action has decoupled from M2 growth. A catch-up could be imminent,” he posted.

Bitcoin Options Market Shows Volatility Reset

Data from Laevitas.ch showed the put-to-call ratio on Deribit spiking to its highest level in over a year. The metric dropped back to 0.8 by Monday, indicating renewed interest in bullish bets.

In parallel, BTC’s one-month annualized futures premium dipped to 3.5% on Saturday but rebounded above the 5% neutral line by Monday. Traders often interpret a premium above 5% as a sign of bullish sentiment returning to futures markets.

Despite this, some caution remains. The CME futures gap filled earlier this week, and trader @mark_cullen flagged $106,000 as a bullish order block if Bitcoin fails to hold above $108,400.

“If real weakness comes, I’m watching that 106K level,” he said on X.

On-Chain Supply Metrics Strengthen Bull Case

While derivatives reset over the weekend, spot supply trends remain firmly bullish.

On-chain data shared by Jeff Cook highlighted a new all-time low for Bitcoin held on exchanges. Historically, such lows precede strong price rallies, as reduced supply on exchanges lowers immediate selling pressure.

“Less supply = less selling pressure = price discovery to the upside,” Cook noted.

According to AlphaBTC, Bitcoin’s return into its previous trading range aligns with the CME gap fill. If price holds above $108,500, the next upside targets may come into play. However, failure to maintain the level could reopen bids around $106,000.

Binance Sell Pressure Fails to Break Bitcoin Price

Despite sustained sell pressure on Binance, BTC has held its ground above $107,000.

Data from BorisVest indicated that taker activity on Binance Derivatives has remained aggressively skewed to the sell side for over 45 days. The Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD) metric, which tracks net market sell pressure, continues to fall.

Yet, price resilience despite this pressure has led to speculation that large buyers are absorbing the flow. This divergence suggests that Bitcoin may be under quiet accumulation by institutional or high-net-worth actors.

Sentiment Turns Cautiously Greedy

According to market sentiment data from Woominkyu, the Blockchain Cycle Momentum Index (BCMI) rose to 0.55, breaching the mid-cycle threshold.

The Fear & Greed Index now sits in the low-70s. Metrics like MVRV (2.0) and NUPL (0.4) suggest that market valuation has yet to reach peak euphoria, giving room for potential upside. However, Woominkyu warned that a rise into the 0.60–0.75 BCMI range often precedes 20–35% shakeouts.

He recommended trimming leverage once the index hits 0.60 and preparing to de-risk above 0.75.

“Momentum could grind higher, but crowded derivatives can still cause snap-backs,” he noted.

$120K Possible, but Not Without Volatility

While macro and on-chain signals show strength, analysts remain wary of volatility.

Bitcoin’s ability to absorb sell pressure and hold support has raised hopes for a breakout. However, as the BCMI moves closer to its critical zone and macro risks remain elevated, short-term pullbacks are not off the table.

Until then, Bitcoin’s $107,000–$110,000 range remains the key battleground. Traders now wait to see if cooling derivatives sentiment, tightening supply, and delayed tariffs will provide the catalyst needed to breach resistance.

Disclaimer

This article is for informational purposes only and provides no financial, investment, or other advice. The author or any people mentioned in this article are not responsible for any financial loss that may occur from investing in or trading. Please do your research before making any financial decisions.