MSTR Stock Price Forecast: Can Strategy Surge 35% as NAV Sinks?

Key Insights:

• MSTR stock price has become a bargain as its NAV multiple falls.
• The stock has formed a bullish flag chart pattern on the weekly chart.
• Bitcoin has numerous bullish catalysts that will drive it higher.

The MSTR stock price has moved into a local correction after falling by 12% from its highest point this year. This retreat could be about to end as technical analysis points to a Bitcoin rebound and as its net asset value (NAV) multiple crashes.

MSTR Stock NAV Multiple Has Plunged

The recent MicroStrategy stock crash has made it a relative bargain by bridging the gap between its market capitalization and its Bitcoin holdings.

According to BitcoinTreasuries, the company holds 628,791 coins currently valued at $73.35 billion. It increased its accumulation last week when it spent $2.5 billion to buy more coins.

MicroStrategy’s market capitalization has jumped to $114 billion. This gives it a NAV multiple of 1.55. As the chart below shows, the company’s NAV has been in a strong downward trend this year. It peaked at 3.31 in November last year.

A falling NAV multiple is a sign that the stock is becoming a bargain compared to where it was last year. This decline is likely because the Bitcoin treasury industry has become highly concentrated, with their number jumping to over 100 this year. Some of the newer companies using this strategy are GameStop and Trump Media.

Another reason for this is concerns about its increased dilution as it raises billions of dollars to accumulate more Bitcoins. The company’s goal is to raise $84 billion to achieve this, a figure much higher than the cumulative Bitcoin ETF inflows since their inception.

Bitcoin Price Recovery as a Catalyst for Strategy

The other potential catalyst for the MSTR stock price after its valuation is that odds of Bitcoin soaring have jumped. For example, the Donald Trump administration has implemented tariffs on gold, which may push more investors to BTC. Bitcoin is often seen as an alternative to gold.

Additionally, Trump has opened the floodgates or retirement funds to invest in Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. The executive order, which was signed on Thursday, means that a small part of the $9 trillion worth of assets in 401 (k) accounts may flow to Bitcoin, Ethereum, and other blue-chip assets.

These inflows, together with ETF demands, will come at a time when Bitcoin supply on exchanges has crashed to the lowest level in years. Falling asset supply and rising demand often leads to higher asset prices in the long term.

BTC Price Technical Analysis

The weekly chart shows that the BTC price is slowly forming a bullish flag pattern. This pattern began to form in April, when it fell to a multi-month low of $74,555. It is now forming the lag section, which resembles a descending channel.

Bitcoin price has also remained above all moving averages and the key support at $109,247, its January highs. Therefore, the most likely outcome is where Bitcoin jumps and moves to $125,000, which is the extreme overshoot point of the Murrey Math Lines tool. Such a move will boost the MSTR stock and that of other treasury companies.

MicroStrategy Stock Price Analysis

MSTR stock price has bullish technicals that may help to boost its performance. The weekly chart shows that it has been in a tight range in the past few weeks.

Like BTC, it is also forming the bullish flag pattern. The flagpole section has already completed and the stock is now in the flag part. As such, it is possible that it will rebound, and possibly jump to its all-time high of $542, which is 35% above the current level.

The Strategy stock is slowly becoming a bargain as its net asset value continues its downtrend. In addition to its valuation, the shares will jump because of the numerous Bitcoin catalysts, including its technicals. Its weekly chart also points to an eventual comeback in the coming months.

Disclaimer

This article is for informational purposes only and provides no financial, investment, or other advice. The author or any people mentioned in this article are not responsible for any financial loss that may occur from investing in or trading. Please do your research before making any financial decisions.