S2F Founder Teases Bitcoin Price Rally to $300,000, But There’s a Catch

PlanB, a prominent analyst and founder of the Stock-2-Flow (S2F) model, recently dropped a bullish Bitcoin (BTC) price prediction.

The analyst noted that Bitcoin could rally towards $300,000, citing a correlation with S&P growth.

Bitcoin Price Correlation with S&P

In an X post, PlanB highlighted that the Bitcoin price would soar to $300,000 when the S&P 500 index climbed to $7,000. As of this writing, the S&P is around $6,389, less than 10% away from reaching $7,000.

Notably, the linear projection of historical S&P 500 growth (2020–2025) suggests the index would hit $7,000 by 2032.

However, PlanB noted that the S&P would hit the $7,000 target earlier than the forecasted 2032 timeline.

According to the analyst, the projection may happen this year, driven by conditions like debasement, M2 expansion, and money printing.

Fiat debasement refers to the reduction in the value of a currency. It often occurs when central banks increase the money supply through printing, which can lead to inflation.

Excessive money supply growth can inflate the prices of assets. As more dollars chase the same goods and investments, the price of the S&P 500 is expected to climb higher.

As of press time, Bitcoin price was changing hands at $121,014, representing a 2.6% increase in the last 24 hours. Therefore, Bitcoin would need to rally more than 146% to hit the targeted $300,000 milestone.

For now, investors remain active as indicated by the trading volume. This metric registered a 36.4% increase to $79.7 billion within the past 24 hours.

End of Bitcoin 4-year Cycles

Meanwhile, Pierre Rochard, CEO at The Bitcoin Bond Company, argued that the four-year Bitcoin market cycles are over.

In previous cycles, halving events acted as the main driver of the BTC rally as a reduction of block rewards lowered the supply.

Bitcoin accumulation increased right before the halving and active distribution happened after that. On the other hand, the bearish cycle begins in the period between halvings.

However, Rochard argued that halvings now have minimal impact on Bitcoin’s supply. He emphasized that 95% of the BTC have already been mined and added that supply comes from OG whales.

Rochard further pointed out that demand now comes mainly from institutional investors instead rather than speculative retail traders.

Strategy Rewrites Corporate BTC Adoption

Michael Saylor’s Strategy remains the leading Bitcoin corporate holder. Strategy currently holds a total of 628,946 BTC, according to data from BitcoinTreasuries.

Since adopting Bitcoin in 2020, Strategy has raised $46 billion, outperforming every S&P 500 stock. The firm has delivered 100% Annual Percentage Rate (APR), since August 10, 2020.

Within this period, Magnificent Seven and the S&P 500 recorded 27% APR and 14%, respectively. Bonds took an absolute beating as their APR declined by 4%.

The numbers are an illustration of the strategic advantages unlocked by Bitcoin adoption. As other firms see the transformative potential of BTC on Strategy, they are likely to jump on the adoption train.

The Strategy Bitcoin Adoption Milestone | Source: Chaitanya Jain

Already, firms like BlackRock and MetaPlanet have remained persistent in adding BTC to their digital asset reserves. BlackRock recently purchased 1,204 BTC, valued at $142 million, bringing its total holdings to 737,000 BTC.

Similarly, Metaplanet CEO Simon Gerovich recently reaffirmed that the firm remains committed to BTC strategy.

The CEO recalled that Metaplanet held only 246 BTC in 2024. During this period, Metaplanet stock had dropped 70% over six trading sessions.

Since then, the company has pursued an aggressive accumulation model. The CEO described this model as executing precisely, according to its 15-month roadmap.