Bitcoin Price Prediction This Christmas: Will BTC Rally to $165K or Slide to $40K?

Bitcoin price prediction debate widened during the Christmas period as traders shared different chart-based scenarios. The Bitcoin price traded near $87,700 on December 25, as holiday conditions kept volatility relatively muted.

Several market updates focused on how Bitcoin price behaved around Christmas in recent years. Weekly and monthly indicators also drew attention from analysts tracking trend strength into year-end for now.

Christmas Trading Often Shows Low Volatility on Bitcoin Price

A Christmas market review compared daily and weekly price action from 2022, 2023, and 2024 and pointed to tight ranges. The review described limited follow-through and fewer sharp moves during late-December sessions, when liquidity often thins.

The review said Bitcoin spent much of December 2023 hovering in a narrow band near the mid-$40,000 area. It also noted that December 2022 traded in a tight range near the mid-$16,000 area.

The Bitcoin news also noted that BTC short pullbacks appeared soon after Christmas in several recent cases.

January Positioning Trend Return

The Christmas update linked the year-end price trend to tax-driven positioning. The presenter noted that some investors sell losing positions near year-end to avoid recording losses, then reassess their exposure January 1uary 1.

Analysts often monitor that window because flows can change once the calendar year ends. The update stated that a rebound can follow when traders re-enter positions, although the direction still depends on market structure.

Recent analysis focused on whether Bitcoin price prediction breaks up or down from a multi-week consolidation.

Bitcoin Price Prediction Split Between $165K Upside and $40K Risk

A widely shared chart presented an upside-down Bitcoin price prediction, targeting roughly $165,745. The chart framed Bitcoin’s longer trend as a staircase of advances followed by pauses, then another push higher.

That bullish view treated the current pullback as a consolidation inside a rising framework. The chart marked prior trend resumes after similar pauses and projects another advance if support holds.

A separate post offered a different Bitcoin price prediction based on the 50-week simple moving average. The author noted that Bitcoin has posted large drawdowns after losing its weekly mean in past cycles, referencing an average decline of 60%.

Using that historical average, the post pointed to a downside reference near $40,000 if Bitcoin loses the 50-week SMA and fails to reclaim it.

Both scenarios rely on confirmation from Bitcoin price action. The upside case generally needs BTC to reclaim recent swing highs and sustain higher weekly closes. The downside case gains attention when Bitcoin closes below the weekly mean and momentum stays weak.

Monthly MACD Focus Guide The Next Move

Beyond weekly averages, the Christmas update also shifted to the monthly timeframe and flagged a developing MACD signal. The analyst said earlier bearish turns on the monthly MACD aligned with extended downtrends in prior cycles.

The update also referenced a weekly baseline concept, where a Bitcoin price moving below a key threshold coincided with weaker phases. The presenter advised traders to watch higher-timeframe closes, not just intraday moves.

In the short term, attention remained focused on a tightening range, with rising support and falling resistance compressing the price. The update stated that traders often wait for a clear breakout and a hold above or below the range before committing to a directional bias.

The presenter pointed to the $70,000–$75,000 area as a zone some traders watch for demand during a deeper pullback. The update tied the bullish case to a breakout and follow-through after the holiday period.