Bitcoin Price Prediction: BTC Price Struggles to Break Past $82,000, What’s Next?

Bitcoin price remained near $82,000 this week as traders watched resistance near the 200-day moving average. BTC has held above key support levels despite inflation concerns, volatile oil prices, and broader macro uncertainty.

Analysts remain divided on whether Bitcoin can extend gains without stronger spot demand backing the rally.

Is Bitcoin Price Rally A Short Squeeze?

OTC platform Wintermute noted that the recent Bitcoin price rally seems like a short squeeze instead of a fundamental breakout. The firm noted that U.S. equities extended gains for a sixth consecutive week, with the Nasdaq Composite and S&P 500 reaching fresh highs.

At the same time, Bitcoin climbed above the $80,000 level for the first time since January and briefly touched around $83,000. After months of weakness, BTC price is once again attempting a move above the 200-day moving average (MA).

Wintermute said derivatives activity, not spot demand, still dominates the current rally. The firm said Bitcoin open interest increased from roughly $48 billion to $58 billion over the past month. However, the spot trading volumes remain near two-year lows.

As per Wintermute, the recent rally seems to be supported by forced short covering than by sustained spot market demand. However, the firm continues to bullish about the long-term perspective. It noted:

The longer-term picture is more constructive. ETF flows added $623M, Morgan Stanley’s new BTC ETF pulled in $194M in month one without a single day of outflows. Exchange reserves are still at 7-year lows. The accumulation story is intact.

BTC Price Eyes Breakout, But Miners on Selling Spree

Popular crypto analyst Ali Martinez noted that the Bitcoin price has failed to decisively break above its 200-day simple moving average near the $82,500 level for three consecutive trading sessions.

According to the analyst, the repeated rejection shows that bulls are struggling to generate enough follow-through volume to confirm a sustained breakout.

Ali Martinez also noted that Bitcoin miners have been taking profits during the recent rally. They have been selling BTC accumulated near the $72,000 range. The analyst said this additional supply could reinforce resistance near current levels.

The report further highlighted that leverage across the market remains heavily skewed toward long positions. There lies major liquidation clusters near $75,000, $73,000, and $70,000. According to Ali Charts, if Bitcoin fails to reclaim and hold the $82,500 level as support in the near term, the leveraged long positions could be flushed to test lower levels.

Bitcoin Price Prediction: The Optimistic Outlook

Blockchain analytics firm Santiment noted that the Bitcoin price has managed to hold above the $80,000 level despite hotter-than-expected U.S. CPI inflation data.

According to the analytics firm, large Bitcoin holders have continued accumulating while retail investors show hesitation. Santiment reported that wallets holding between 10 and 10,000 BTC accumulated approximately 16,622 Bitcoin. This marks 0.12% increase in their holdings.

At the same time, smaller wallets holding less than 0.01 BTC reduced their holdings by around 28 Bitcoin. As per Santiment, sustained accumulation by large stakeholders along with retail fear is a suitable condition for crypto market rally.

On the other hand, CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju stated that with BTC price reclaiming $80,000, short-term holders are no longer under pressure to sell.