Bitcoin Price Analysis: Is It Going For Accumulation Or Redistribution?

• Bitcoin showed signs of accumulation near $94K-$98K. However, failing to break the $100K mark could trigger a bearish redistribution phase.
• The SOPR for STH has decreased. This might prevent a bullish recovery from happening right away.

Bitcoin started 2025 with a firm footing, soaring more than 3.50% in a week. Following its options contract expiry on January 2, the Bitcoin price witnessed a buying spree and reached the $98k mark.

However, the recent trading patterns suggested potential scenarios of either accumulation or redistribution. The Wyckoff method defined the same, significantly shaping the market perspective.

At press time, the Bitcoin price traded at $98,366, noting an intraday rise of over 0.78%. The fear and greed index had a reading of 72, which conveys greed among investors. Typically, such a scenario represents that investors are optimistic and confident. This could further fuel rallies ahead.

Following a retracement below the $100,000k mark, the BTC price took multiple retests around the $94,000k mark. Furthermore, the token consolidated in a narrow range, signifying accumulation.

The Wyckoff scheme’s ‘Spring’ and ‘Test’ stages denoted this phase. In contrast, the Bitcoin price stabilized after a decline. The redistribution scheme in the Wyckoff method displayed a lower peak at $98k. This raised the possibility of a bearish consequence.

Bitcoin Short-Term SOPR Analysis: Key Insights

The relationship between long-term holders (LTHs) and short-term holders (STHs) is notably visible in the figure below.

The market could move into a specific phase, primarily to peaks of particular cycles. If this happens, understanding the dynamics of Bitcoin supply transfer from LTHs to STHs is essential.

These observations suggested that, despite the selling by LTHs, the Bitcoin price had strong fundamentals. This happened as the STH demand was still high.

Analysis of STHs’ realized prices over various periods revealed that some levels acted as support. They backed the resistance levels as well.

These include the realized prices, which average $41,000. This resulted in short-term gains of up to $85,000 and long-term gains of $60,000.

Furthermore, the STH SOPR stood at 1. That highlighted that Short-term holders (STH) were not profitable by selling BTC at current levels, implying that they had no intention to sell. It could further accelerate the market.

Nevertheless, the declining SOPR post-recent rally suggested that the market may not yet be ready for another bull run. Instead, it may see further consolidation around the $100k mark.

Technical Analysis: What Does the Price Action Say?

On the daily timeframe analysis, the Bitcoin price traded in a sustained uptrend and stood beyond the key EMAs. Over the weekend, it reclaimed the $98K mark and regained buying momentum.

The token has formed the higher highs and higher lows series. Furthermore, the BTC price is poised for the subsequent bullish leg formation. Once it returns above the $100k mark, further accumulation could pave the way for a rise toward the $110,000 mark in the coming sessions.

The momentum indicators RSI and MACD readings represented a bullish outlook. The Long/Short ratio stood at 0.986. This conveyed a higher long addition than shorts.

The uptrend was sustained until the BTC price was above the $95K mark, and the ongoing rally could extend further. However, a drop below the zone could trigger a profit booking move toward the $90k mark.

Disclaimer

This article is for informational purposes only and provides no financial, investment, or other advice. The author or any people mentioned in this article are not responsible for any financial loss that may occur from investing in or trading. Please do your research before making any financial decisions.