- ETH fell below $2K, slipping under its realized price of $2,054 for the first time in 2 years.
- Analysts predict ETH could drop to $1.4K-$1.6K, mirroring the 2020 capitulation phase.
- Despite short-term weakness, some traders forecast a bullish breakout to $10K this cycle.
Ethereum (ETH) price recently dropped below $2,000, struggling to regain this psychological level. While Bitcoin (BTC) and Ripple (XRP) posted minor recoveries in the last 24 hours, Ethereum showed no significant bullish movement.
The token fell to $1,752 on March 11, marking its lowest point over two years. Analysts suggested that ETH price could drop further before a trend reversal.
Ethereum Price Drops Below Realized Price, Holders Face Losses
The decline in Ethereum price brought it below its realized price of $2,054 for the first time since February 2023.
The realized price represented the average cost basis of all ETH in circulation. According to Glassnode, the drop below this level indicated that most ETH holders face unrealized losses.
The market value to realized value (MVRV) ratio also dropped to 0.93. This further showed that Ethereum holders are, on average, down by 7%.
Based on historical data, the MVRV ratio helps determine whether an asset is overvalued or undervalued. When the ratio falls below 1.0, it signals that the market is in a state of capitulation.
On March 12, the TVL on Ethereum was recorded at $45.6 Billion. This is 41% lower than its high of $77 Billion recorded sometime in December 2024. Furthermore, total fees paid by users to trade on Ethereum fell to $46.28 Million, the lowest since July 2020.
Analysts Predict Further Drop Before Rebound
Market analysts, including Ted Pillows, have compared Ethereum’s current price action to the 2020 market crash. Ted pointed out that ETH’s capitulation candle resembles the March 2020 crash pattern.
Interestingly, ETH price could retest the $1,400-$1,600 area before a bounce. Based on this cycle, he presents a long-term target, which could reach $10,000 for Ethereum.
Furthermore, Glassnode’s cost-basis distribution data also supports the idea of significant support levels at $1,600 and $1,900. The data showed that between 600,000 and 700,000 ETH were accumulated around the $1,900 mark.
This accumulation could act as a support zone if Ethereum consolidates at current levels. Notably, a resistance level exists at $2,200, where 465,000 ETH are positioned.
A thin range of $1,900 to $2,200 indicated that Ethereum price could spike if there is a rise in buying pressure. However, if the bearish pressure continues, more declines toward the $1,400 – $1,600 area is possible.
Ethereum’s Long-Term Outlook and $10K Prediction
However, some analysts still expect a long-term bullish outlook on Ethereum based on its present vulnerability. Ted Pillows further noted that Ethereum price has maintained a similar pattern during the breakout phase in 2020-2021.
Based on the ETH price trend analysis, Ted believes this cycle will achieve a price target of $10,000. Other traders suggest that the $1,600-$1,900 price range is attractive for long-term buyers.
Ninja, an anonymous analyst, noted that commercial money could flow into the market and increase prices in the following months. He set a high swing target at $2,500 for Ethereum’s next move.
Ethereum price direction will depend on the market and other factors such as ETF approvals. If past trends are followed, there is a possibility for an upward reversal towards the stronger levels in the next cycle.
Disclaimer
This article is for informational purposes only. Crypto investment involves inherent risks due to the volatility in price. Readers should conduct their own research before making any investment decision. Also, you can consult a crypto expert before investing in cryptocurrencies.
