Key Insights:
- Analyst predicts BTC could hit $126K by June if historical trends repeat.
- Bitcoin’s seasonal trend shows April and October bring the biggest gains.
- $69K is the new likely floor, with a 95% chance BTC won’t fall below it.
Bitcoin price has fallen 30% from its January peak. However, analysts are confident it is going to roar back. Timothy Peterson, a network economist, said the long-term historical evidence points to a great surge that is due in the coming months. Based on past patterns, Bitcoin price could reach $126,000 by June if market conditions align.
Bitcoin’s Seasonal Trend Hints at a Rebound
Timothy Peterson analyzed Bitcoin’s seasonal trends and identified April and October as its most profitable months. He noted that Bitcoin currently trades near the lower end of its historical seasonal range, indicating a possible surge. If past trends repeat, Bitcoin price could experience a sharp increase in the coming weeks.
Peterson’s research highlights that nearly all of Bitcoin’s annual performance is concentrated within a few months. In previous bull cycles, April has often delivered major price gains. His data suggests Bitcoin has a high probability of reaching new highs before June if seasonal trends hold.
Bitcoin Price Holds Key Support
Peterson introduced the “Lowest Price Forward” model to predict Bitcoin’s long-term price floors. His model accurately forecasted that BTC price would never trade below $10,000 after September 2020. In 2025, he identified $69,000 as a critical support level with a 95% probability of holding.
Interestingly, BTC price recently touched $76,000 and pulled back in a V-shape, indicating support levels are still strong. According to analysts, the market structure of bitcoin is still bullish and continues to evolve based on historical patterns. If the $69,000 support level holds, Bitcoin price could gain momentum for another rally.
Furthermore, Peterson’s latest analysis sets a median price target of $126,000 by June 1. He explained that Bitcoin price usually trades below its long-term trend for four months before experiencing a major breakout. His research suggests Bitcoin is currently in the accumulation phase before its next upward move.
Bitcoin’s Bull Market Structure Remains Intact
Furthermore, most analysts still believe that the latest Bitcoin fall is just another bear market rally which is characteristic for a bull market. Crypto analyst Rekt Capital has highlighted five pullbacks since the beginning of this year and the subsequent recovery. Yet, the recent fall was referred to by Bitfinex analysts as a ‘shakeout phase’, not the end of the cycle.
Historical data indicate the existence of an up and down pattern of Bitcoin price with most recoveries made soon after corrections. Based on the market trends, Bitcoin has potential to skyrocket later this year.
Bitcoin Price Poised for a Breakout
Furthermore, Ali Martinez noted that BTC price is in the formation of an ascending triangle, meaning a breakout is likely to occur soon. It shows an upwards consolidation where the higher lows are forming and there is a significant horizontal resistance level. If the BTC price breaks above this resistance level, price increase could be 8%.
Bitcoin price is currently hovering around $83,572 just below the breakout point. Martinez stated that a break of the triangle pattern could drive the prices to $90,000.
Disclaimer
This article is for informational purposes only and provides no financial, investment, or other advice. The author or any people mentioned in this article are not responsible for any financial loss that may occur from investing in or trading. Please do your research before making any financial decisions.
