Key Insights:
- Solana sits at key $125 support amid descending triangle pattern.
- A confirmed breakout could target $218, up 63% from current levels.
- Mixed signals from RSI, MACD, and TD Sequential keep traders cautious.
Solana (SOL) price traded just below $125 on Wednesday, testing a key support zone as bulls and bears continued to battle for short-term control. Price action remained choppy, with traders watching whether SOL could hold above the descending trendline that has capped upside moves since mid-March.
At the time of writing, Solana traded at $124.52, down 5.41% over the last 24 hours. The latest dip placed SOL close to the $125 support area, which many traders consider critical to avoid a breakdown.
Solana Price Breakout or Breakdown? Market Awaits Confirmation
A confluence of moving averages and key Fibonacci levels clustered between $135 and $165 created resistance overhead, while the current price hovered just above a descending triangle’s lower boundary.
If Solana breaks above the triangle, a 63% upside move toward $218 remains in play, as shown by the measured breakout target.
Popular chart analyst Ali Martinez pointed to a broader pattern developing on the higher timeframes. He wrote, “Solana might be retesting the breakout zone from a right-angled ascending broadening pattern, with the $65 target still in play.”
Despite this bearish outlook, he also cited a weekly buy signal on the TD Sequential, suggesting a possible bullish reversal if the signal holds.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stood at 49.37, near neutral territory. However, gemxbt’s market monitor flagged downward pressure in the short-term structure. “The hourly chart for SOL/USDT shows a bearish market structure,” the post stated, noting that Solana broke below the 5, 10, and 20-period moving averages on the hourly chart. MACD indicators also leaned bearish, with the signal line now positioned above the MACD line.
Trader Sentiment Split as Key Levels Test Patience
Solana’s immediate fate could hinge on short-term chart closes. Satoshi Owl wrote, “SOL is not looking too good here, breaking down from trendline on 1h. No confirmation yet though.” The analyst added that a drop to $120 was possible before any bullish momentum returned. Still, the long-term sentiment remained intact. “Long term mega bullish on Solana,” he added, reaffirming a broader optimistic outlook among some traders.
On-chain momentum remains subdued for now. As SOL tests $125, traders have expressed caution, choosing to wait for confirmation of a sustained break above the trendline resistance near $135. If bulls fail to reclaim this level, the risk of a retest of $120—or lower—grows. Yet, if buyers step in, the next upside targets would include $155 and $164, marked by the 50% and 200-day EMA, respectively.
The 1.618 Fibonacci extension at $198.26 and major resistance at $218 serve as further upside targets if momentum resumes. From the current price, such a move would mark a 63% increase. However, confirmation remains absent, and traders are reluctant to front-run the breakout.
Social Activity Surges But Market Remains Wary
Social media buzz around SOL surged on Monday. According to Gemxbt, Solana ranked as the most mentioned ticker on X in the last hour. Despite the increase in visibility, the crowd remains split. Bears pointed to failed hourly trendline support and weak momentum, while bulls leaned on technical signals like the TD Sequential and broader structure patterns.
Volume has yet to accompany any attempted breakout, a sign that whales may still be on the sidelines. Analysts noted that Solana’s previous surges required aggressive buying from institutional traders and ecosystem catalysts—factors currently missing from the market narrative.
Solana price chart now presents a classic breakout scenario: triangle structure, low RSI, and mixed momentum indicators. Bulls have a clear upside roadmap if they reclaim $135 with strength, but failure to hold $125 could open the door for further declines.
With the market at a crossroads, upcoming daily and weekly candle closes will likely dictate the next major move.
Disclaimer
In this article, the views and opinions stated by the author or any people named are for informational purposes only, and they don’t establish the investment, financial, or any other advice. Trading or investing in cryptocurrency assets comes with a risk of financial loss.
