Key Insights:
- Traders suspect insider activity ahead of China tariff announcement.
- MACD weekly crossover hints at renewed Bitcoin uptrend.
- Retail interest remains low despite the Bitcoin price above $100,000.
Bitcoin (BTC) traded just above $104,000 on May 12, narrowly missing a breakout after traders flagged pre-announcement price action during the U.S.-China tariff deal. The move, which began around an hour before the official news, added fuel to longstanding concerns around market leaks.
BTC rallied 9.9% over the week, hitting its highest levels since late Jan., but failed to flip key resistance near $104,500. Analysts said the rejection could keep the market in consolidation until stronger catalysts emerge.
Traders Flag Early Moves Ahead of Tariff Deal
Popular trader Daan Crypto Trades wrote on X that “price started to move ~1 hour prior to the announcement,” calling it another example of “aware” price action. “Any tiny dip was getting scooped up instantly,” he added, describing market behavior that hinted at insider knowledge.
He continued: “We’re seeing quite a lot of ‘aware’ price action precede big announcements lately. The insider/leaking is real and it’s used to trade our markets.”
James Wynn echoed the sentiment, warning followers to expect sharp volatility. “It’s about to get seriously volatile for $BTC. Sharp wicks down, sharp wicks up,” he posted.
Charts from CoinGlass showed clustered liquidity around $106,000, with BTC/USDT perpetual swaps on 15-minute timeframes testing upper resistance as the tariff deal emerged.
Bitcoin Weekly MACD Crossover Flashes Rare Bullish Signal
Meanwhile, trader Moustache pointed to a weekly bullish crossover on the MACD indicator—one of the most closely watched momentum tools in crypto.
“Probably the biggest signal you can get at the moment,” he told X followers, noting the last crossover occurred in Oct. 2024. Historical data shows such crosses tend to mark trend reversals or strong continuation phases.
Still, BTC faced a rejection at $104,500 shortly after the weekly close, according to trader Rekt Capital. He wrote that price may now need to form a bullish divergence, where lower price lows coincide with higher lows on the RSI.
Retail Hesitation Suggests Room to Run
Despite Bitcoin’s push above $100,000, retail interest remains muted. Google Trends data showed search volumes for “Bitcoin” were at a five-year low—even with BTC trading above six figures.
Vijay Selvam, author of Principles of Bitcoin, summarized: “Google searches for ‘Bitcoin’ at close to a 5-year low. Price over 100k. Retail hasn’t even properly checked back in since 2020.”
Fear & Greed Index readings also hinted at restrained enthusiasm. The index printed 70/100 on May 12, lower than the 72/100 posted during Bitcoin’s push to $94,000 in late Apr. This may indicate more sustainable gains as fewer traders act on euphoria.
On-chain metrics from CryptoQuant added another layer to the outlook. Contributor Kripto Mevsimi said 98% of BTC supply sat in profit, a condition that historically aligned with late-stage bull runs.
“Long-term holders may see these conditions as a signal to derisk,” Mevsimi noted. “Meanwhile, newer entrants could interpret this strength as confirmation to chase.”
Macro Uncertainty Remains Ahead of CPI and Fed Commentary
The coming week brings CPI and PPI data from the United States, raising the odds of sharp swings across crypto and equities.
While markets rallied on the China tariff resolution, traders still await an official statement from President Donald Trump. “This explains why markets are only up ~1.3% on this otherwise massively bullish news,” noted The Kobeissi Letter.
The broader mood remains cautious, especially with the Federal Reserve holding its current rate stance. CME FedWatch data shows less than 15% probability of a rate cut in June, while odds for July sit at around 50%.
Mosaic Asset said recent policy statements from Fed Chair Jerome Powell offered no new bullish narrative. “The Fed can take a ‘wait and see’ approach to how tariffs are impacting the economy and inflation,” they wrote in The Market Mosaic.
As capital flows balance between institutional demand and cautious retail sentiment, traders are watching closely for confirmation signals. For now, $106,000 remains the breakout level to beat as the market navigates a volatile week.
Disclaimer
In this article, the views and opinions stated by the author or any people named are for informational purposes only. And they don’t establish the investment, financial, or any other advice. Trading or investing in cryptocurrency assets comes with a risk of financial loss.
Moses K is a crypto journalist covering markets, regulation, and blockchain trends. He has written for The Coin Republic, Coinchapter, Cryptopolitan, Cryptotale, Coinspeaker, and MPost. Known for his concise, data-driven reporting, Moses focuses on price analysis, on-chain metrics, and policy developments shaping the global digital asset landscape.
