Bitcoin Price Eyes $130K as Bullish Window Remains Open

Key Insights:

• Bitcoin Price eyes $130,000 as STH MVRV ratio shows more room for gains.
• Sunday’s $120K spike triggered $1 billion in liquidations.
• Inverse head-and-shoulders target remains at $143,000.

Bitcoin (BTC) traded at $118,496 on July 17, pausing just below the $120,000 level after last weekend’s sharp rally. The move came amid rising futures liquidations and a solid uptick in ETF-driven demand. While price stalled at a local high, on-chain data suggests short-term holders still have room to realize gains, supporting the possibility of further upside.

Bitcoin Price Action Shows Rising Wedge Structure

BTC has been rising inside a broadening ascending wedge pattern since April. The support base at $100,000 and overhead resistance near $130,000 define the current trading range. A daily close above $130,000 could trigger a measured move toward $143,000, as projected by the inverse head-and-shoulders breakout confirmed above $112,000.

The 50-day and 200-day moving averages at $108,250 and $102,537, respectively, now serve as key support. A breakdown below this area would invalidate the current bullish bias and open the door for retests toward the $95,000–$100,000 zone.

Stochastic RSI remains elevated near 76.79, suggesting possible overextension. Still, it has not yet crossed down, leaving room for upward continuation.

Short-Term Holder MVRV Supports More Gains

According to analyst Darkfost, the short-term holder market-value-to-realized-value (STH MVRV) ratio has not breached its usual profit-taking threshold. Historically, selling pressure follows when the ratio hits 1.35 equivalent to about 35% unrealized gains. Currently, the STH MVRV sits near 1.15.

With the average realized price for STH wallets now above $102,000, BTC could climb another 20% to 25% before triggering major selloffs. This aligns with the technical resistance near $130,000, reinforcing the idea that BTC still has room to rally before a broader correction.

ETF Flows, Tariffs, and U.S. Legislation Add Tailwinds

The rally above $120,000 coincided with a futures-led short squeeze, with over $1 billion in liquidations. While spot buying lagged, analysts cited institutional support through Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and corporate treasury accumulation.

Macro catalysts are also turning. U.S. President Donald Trump secured House support for advancing the GENIUS stablecoin bill and the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act. Meanwhile, the market appears to have absorbed the impact of new tariffs set to begin on Aug. 1.

Bitcoin Price Outlook: All Eyes on $130,000

For bulls to maintain control, BTC must close daily candles above the $130,000 threshold. Failure to do so could reinforce wedge resistance and lead to a pullback toward $112,000.

The broader sentiment remains risk-on for now, with ETF inflows at a three-month high. A break above the wedge would align with both technical and on-chain indicators, potentially launching BTC toward $143,000, the target implied by the inverse head-and-shoulders pattern.

However, if MVRV climbs above 1.35 during the rally, traders should monitor for short-term profit-taking pressure that could cap further upside.

Disclaimer

This article is for informational purposes only and provides no financial, investment, or other advice. The author or any people mentioned in this article are not responsible for any financial loss that may occur from investing in or trading. Please do your research before making any financial decisions.