Nvidia Stock Forecast as Jefferies Bets on a US-China Deal

Nvidia stock price remains in a consolidation phase as attention shifts to the upcoming earnings and meeting between the US and Chinese officials, with Jeffferies analysts predicting a deal between the two countries. NVDA stock was trading at $183 on Monday, down from the year-to-date high of $195.

Jeffferies Bets on US and China Deal

One potential catalyst for the Nvidia stock price is the upcoming meeting between officials from the United States and China. These officials, led by Scott Bessent, will meet in Malaysia to reduce tensions between the two countries.

Analysts at Jefferies believe that one compromise will be for the US to start selling chips in China again in exchange for China removing any restrictions on rare earth materials. Also, Polymarket data shows that there is a 72% chance that the two sides will reach a deal by November 10.

In theory, such a deal would be bullish for the Nvidia stock price because China is still the biggest market for chips globally. The challenge, however, is that it is unclear whether China is interested in American chips as officials recently asked local technology companies not to buy Nvidia chips.

Technology Earnings Ahead

The other major catalyst for the Nvidia stock price will be the upcoming earnings from some of its biggest clients and other companies in the technology industry.

Taiwan Semiconductor and ASML, which provide services to the semiconductor industry, have already published their third-quarter results, which showed that demand for chips continued rising in the last quarter.

Intel, a semiconductor company that Nvidia invested in recently, will be one of the top chip companies to publish its stocks this week. Historically, Intel was the barometer for the semiconductor industry, a role it has relinquished to companies like Nvidia and AMD.

The other top companies to watch are Nvidia clients like Microsoft, Google, Meta Platforms, and Amazon, which will publish their results next week. These hyperscalers are Nvidia’s biggest clients, accounting for almost 50% of all sales.

Nvidia stock price will likely bounce back if these companies announce that they will be boosting their capital expenditure on AI.

Still, there is a risk that some of these companies will hint at slowed investments in the future as they struggle to show the return on investment on AI.

Nvidia, on the other hand, will publish its earnings in November. Analysts expect its results to show that its revenue growth continued even as its sales to Chinese customers remained zero.

The average estimate is that the company’s revenue will be $54.64 billion, up by 55% from the same period last year, continuing its recent performance amid the chips demand. Its earnings-per-share is expected to move to $1.24, up by 54% from the previous 81 cents.

More data shows that analysts expect the full-year results to come in at $206 billion, up by 58% from last year.

Most analysts have a bullish outlook for the company, with the average target being $218, up sharply from the current $183. Some of the recent upgrades are from banks like HSBC, Mizuho, Cantor Fitzgerald, and Keybanc.

Nvidia Stock Price Technical Analysis

The daily timeframe chart shows that the Nvidia stock price has been in a strong uptrend in the past few months, moving from a low of $86 in April to an all-time high of $195 earlier this month.

Most recently, however, the stock has moved sideways as some investors and analysts warn of an AI bubble. It has remained inside the support at $164 and resistance at $195. This consolidation explains why the Average Directional Index (ADX) has crashed to the lowest level in months.

The stock remains above the 50-day and 100-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMA). Therefore, the stock will likely remain in this range for a while. More gains, potentially to $200 and above, will be confirmed if it moves above the all-time high of $195.