Here’s Why XRP Crypto Might Not Reach $4 This Year

Ripple (XRP) has been trading around the $2.50 zone since the flash crashes that happened on the last two consecutive Fridays of this month. The altcoin rose by approximately 2.52% over the past 24 hours, as its trading volume increased by 50% during the same period.

XRP has failed to maintain its strength since it was surpassed by Binance Coin (BNB) as the third-highest-capped cryptocurrency. With the recent general market weakness, the altcoin sparked concerns among traders on prediction markets, which are now betting against an extra bullish quarter.

Odds of XRP Crypto Hitting $4 Diminishing

Prediction markets have gained traction this year, especially after the United States gave a green light, particularly for Polymarket. Polymarket’s counterparts, such as Kalshi, have taken advantage of the streamlining of services in the crypto sector in the U.S. and globally.

Diving into today’s business, the predictions on Kalshi indicated that XRP might not reach the $4 level this year. The odds of this happening had dropped to 20% on the platform from a high of almost 90% in mid-July. This high coincided with the altcoin season, which ran all the way through mid-August.

Additionally, the odds of hitting $5 or above had also dropped to 11% at the time of writing. This reflected declining confidence in this projection. The lowest of these predictions was approximately 10%.

As the odds of this prediction diminished, the price action of XRP crypto was aligning with it.

XRP Crypto Price Action

Examining the weekly price chart, XRP crypto was trading below a key zone in the range between $2.80 and $3. Its price was trading around $2.43, considerably lower than the aforementioned $2.80 level, which aligns with the horizontal support/resistance of previous movements.

The recent price action indicated a bearish reversal with huge red candles dominating the downward movement below the highs at $3.60.

XRP crypto price has entered a consolidation zone that it has experienced for most of this year. Although the long-term pattern since the November 2024 low was upward, short-term submission was in the control of sellers.

That said, buyers needed to move above the $2.70 level to recover momentum and counter the prevailing selling pressure. Otherwise, more negative movements towards the psychological mark at $2 were likely to be experienced. The outlook was neutral to bearish at levels below $2.70.

Will History Repeat?

Additionally, historical patterns suggested XRP was likely to fall further this year before resuming an uptrend. Analyst Steph Is Crypto highlighted this definite repetition pattern on the 3-day chart in a post on X (formerly Twitter).

In 2024, a stage of price consolidation was followed by a downward force below the Guppy Multiple Moving Average, and then a strong upward push occurred. This pattern has been reflected in 2025, suggesting that the contraction of XRP could be towards the lower region of the green ribbon in the near future.

This forecast suggested that XRP crypto could dip to the $1.80-$2.20 range. This would be the final accrual phase preceding an explosive expansion of the multi-year uptrend, with a target of $7 or higher. However, this was dependent on whether the historical fractal repeated.

This model emphasized the need for a near-term dip to ensure a long-term bullish scenario. The projection was structurally positive, yet directly negative in nature. Altogether, the analysis supported the prediction that XRP may not hit $4 this year.