CoinGecko Analysts Identify Best Time to Buy Bitcoin

Bitcoin historically performed better around U.S. federal holidays, according to a new CoinGecko study tracking market data between May 2013 and May 2026. The report found that BTC gained an average of 0.77% on the trading day following a federal holiday, compared with just 0.19% during normal trading periods.

The study reviewed single-day Bitcoin returns and showed holiday periods outperformed regular sessions in 11 of the past 14 years.

New Year’s Day Stand Out As Best Holiday for Bitcoin

Interestingly, New Year’s Day turned out to be the best holiday to buy Bitcoin. According to the data, the average next-day return across the 13 New Year’s Days observed was 2.01%.

Bitcoin was also up on 11 of the 13 New Year’s Days, as it was on Columbus Day, though the average return was lower at 1.70%.

Analysts note that the performance on New Year’s Day is likely due to the positive sentiments that come with the start of the year. However, not all holidays share this positive performance.

While Christmas averaged +1.46% over the 13 years, only 7 of those 13 Christmases posted positive returns. Veteran Day also posted a 1.75% gain, which is very strong given its 46.2% win rate.

The average strong performance is due to three outliers in 2014, 2015, and 2024, when BTC posted double-digit gains on those days.

Meanwhile, some holidays have it worse than others. Martin Luther King Holiday averaged a negative 0.84% performance, while July 4th had a -0.26%. Both stand out as the worst-performing holidays.

Does When You Buy Bitcoin Matter?

CoinGecko data further shows that Monday and Wednesday have the best next-day return of all days of the week. On average, Bitcoin increased 0.38% on those days, while it fell 0.09% on Thursdays.

Despite this slight variance from day to day, performance between weekdays and weekends is not that different. There is an average 0.21% gain on weekdays, while weekends have an average 0.22% gain.

However, the day one buys Bitcoin matters little in the long term. Average annual returns for each day of the week are between 142.15% and 144.56%. Thus, long-term holders are unlikely to be better positioned because they bought on a Monday instead of a Thursday.

Holiday periods showed slightly stronger annualized returns near 157%, compared with about 143% during non-holiday sessions. Still, the report noted broader market cycles continue driving Bitcoin performance far more than calendar timing alone.

The findings also come with limitations. Holiday liquidity conditions, macroeconomic cycles, and changing institutional participation can all reshape historical trading patterns over time.