SpaceX Stock Near $149 as Starship V3 Test Raises Cost Risks

SpaceX stock traded near $149 on Sept. 11 as investors balanced another major Starship milestone against the company’s heavy spending requirements. SPCX remained below its recent September high after settling into a relatively narrow range following substantial volatility since its June IPO. The next Starship test and the pace of AI infrastructure spending provide two major near-term catalysts.

SpaceX’s operating businesses continue to expand rapidly, led by Starlink connectivity and a growing AI segment. However, the latest SEC filing showed that quarterly capital expenditures exceeded $18 billion, highlighting the cost of funding rockets, satellites and data centers simultaneously. Technical indicators on the supplied chart also suggest the stock is approaching an important decision point.

SpaceX Stock in Focus Ahead of the Starship V3 Satellite Launch

Next week will be an important period for SpaceX as the company conducts the Starlink V3 launch. Starlink V3 is the third-generation Starlink satellite that is designed to launch aboard Starship, rather than Falcon 9.

The new satellites need this Starship because of its weight of about 2,000 kilograms, more than three times that of its second generation. This satellite will be able to support up to one Tbps of downlink capacity and 160 Gbps of uplink capacity. This is a large number equal to 24 times the uplink of a V2 mini satellite.

The company will launch the V3 satellite next week ahead of the eventual launch. Most notably, the satellite will be launched on Starship, the same vehicle that Elon Musk hopes will help the company deploy its data centers on Mars. Also, an iteration of the ship will be used to ferry humans to the Moon and Mars in the future.

As such, these developments are important because of its business. Its latest results showed that Starlink, which is part of the connectivity segment, generated over $4.29 billion in the second quarter, accounting for 53% of its total revenue.

SpaceX Confronting Elevated Costs

Elon Musk’s challenge, however, is that these developments will not come cheaply. In its last earnings report, the company said that its capital expenditure jumped to over $18 bilion in the second quarter. Most of this spending is in its AI business, which is made up of tools like Grok and its data centers. This business spent over $15 billion in capex.

Its space and Starlink businesses are also seeing elevated costs, with their capital expenditures rising to $1.17 billion and $1.3 billion, respectively. This spending explains why the company made a loss in the last quarter.

On the positive side, the company has substantial sums of money in its balance sheet. It has over $100 billion in cash and marketable securities. This cash comes from the $85.7 billion it raised in its initial public offering (IPO) and a separate amount it raised in a bond sale.

Another positive is that analysts expect that its revenue growth will accelerate in the foreseeable future. For example, Yahoo Finance data shows that analysts predict that its annual revenue will surge to $44.7 billion, driven by the artificial intelligence industry. It made over $18 billion last year. Also, analysts expect its annual revenue to exceed $106 billion next year. This growth will be driven by its AI and Starlink businesses.

SpaceX Stock Price Technical Analysis

The daily timeframe chart shows that SPCX stock has remained within a narrow range over the past few weeks. A closer look shows that the stock has formed some major bearish chart patterns. For example, it has formed a rising wedge pattern, with the two lines nearing confluence.

The stock has also formed a bearish divergence pattern, which occurs when an oscillator falls while the asset moves higher. In this case, the Percentage Price Oscillator (PPO) and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) are falling. Therefore, the stock may be on the cusp of a bearish breakout, potentially to $120.

This article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial or investment advice. Equity markets remain volatile. Readers should conduct independent research before making investment decisions.