Bitcoin Price Prediction as ETF Outflows Resume, Oil Hits $114, and VIX Jumps

Bitcoin price came under pressure as market participants react to the ongoing risk-on sentiment in the market. BTC dropped to $81,848 as crude oil prices continued to rise, with Brent, the global benchmark, rising to $114.3 and the CBOE VIX Index hitting $20. It also dropped as investors dumped Bitcoin ETFs.

Bitcoin Price Falls as BTC ETF Outflows Resume

BTC dropped as investors resumed selling their ETFs on Thursday as a risk-off sentiment spread in the financial market spread. SoSoValue data shows that spot Bitcoin ETFs shed over $635 million in assets on Thursday. The outflows erased some of the gains made earlier this week.

In total, these assets have had net outflows of over $174 million this month. Before that, they added $2.6 billion in September and $3.52 billion a month earlier. They now hold $104 billion in assets, with BlackRock’s IBIT holding over $65.6 billion.

Spot Bitcoin outflows rose as investors dumped most assets as fears of an ongoing AI bubble spread. The tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 Index dropped by 694 points, while the Dow Jones fell by over 100 points. Some of the most popular stocks, like Nvidia, AMD, and SanDisk, have all dropped into a bear market.

Most notably, the CBOE VIX Index has jumped to 20, its highest level since October 16. It has jumped by over 35% from its lowest level this year.

Crude Oil is Rising Ahead of Federal Reserve Decision

Bitcoin is also falling as investors focus on developments in the energy market, where crude oil is in a strong bull run. Brent, the global benchmark, has jumped to $114.3, its highest level since May this year. The West Texas Intermediate (WTI) has risen to $100.67.

Oil prices are rising as Iran’s IRGC continues shooting oil tankers attempting to cross the Strait of Hormuz. They have shot down tens of tankers in the past few weeks, a move aimed at slowing the flows of oil from the region.

Oil prices have also jumped as investors predict that the crisis in the Middle East will escalate before the election. Secretary Pete Hegseth traveled to Israel recently for talks with Benjamin Netanyahu. The US and Israel have continued this practice this month.

Iran has warned that any attacks will push it to launch a more severe response targeting civilian infrastructure like airports and ports. An escalation would lead to higher oil prices considering that oil inventories are highly subdued.

Higher oil prices will push inflation higher, pushing the Federal Reserve to hike interest rates. Bitcoin does well when the Fed cuts` rates, and vice versa.

The caveat, however, is that the ongoing crude oil price surge is not translating to higher bond yields. Indeed, the ten-year yield has dropped below 5%, while the 30-year has fallen to 5.30%.

Bitcoin Price Technical Analysis

The daily chart shows that Bitcoin price has pulled back in the past few months. It dropped from a high of $87,365 in September to the current $81,680.

Bitcoin has dropped below the key support level of $82,758, its highest level in May this year. Moving below that level has largely confirmed the bearish breakout. On the positive side, BTC has remained above the 50-day moving average of $80,820.

Therefore, the most likely forecast for now is neutral. A break below the 50-day moving average of $80,820 will confirm the bearish breakout and point to more downside. On the other hand, a rebound to $82,758 will confirm more upside.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Cryptocurrency investments carry substantial volatility and potential capital losses. Readers should conduct independent research before making investment decisions.