Bitcoin Price Prediction as ETF Outflows, Crude Oil, and US Bond Yields Jump

Bitcoin price extended its decline on Oct. 8 and briefly approached $82,200, its weakest level since Sept. 21. BTC has fallen from the $86,000–$87,000 region as ETF redemptions and macroeconomic pressure weighed on crypto markets.

The pullback coincided with another surge in crude oil prices and elevated U.S. Treasury yields. Those developments have reinforced inflation concerns while tightening financial conditions for risk assets.

BTC Price Drops as ETF Outflows Jump

BTC price has pulled back as American investors started to sell their ETFs. Spot Bitcoin ETFs had over $487 million in outflows on Thursday, erasing all the gains made since the month started.

In total, spot Bitcoin ETF outflows have risen by $165 million this month, a big reversal from what happened in the previous three months. The funds added $2.65 billion last month after adding $3.5 billion in August this year.

They now hold $107 billion in assets, with BlackRock’s IBIT having the biggest market share with over $67 billion in assets. ETF outflows is a sign that investors are starting to book profits after the recent rally that pushed it from $57,800 in July to $82,465.

Crude Oil Price and US Bond Yields are Soaring

Bitcoin price is also retreating as crude oil prices rebound. Brent, the global benchmark, jumped to $105, while the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) rose to $92.

Oil prices are rising because of the ongoing US-Iran crisis. Iran has intensified its attacks against ships in the region. On Thursday, the IRGC attacked a tanker off the coast of Qatar, and today, there are reports that it has struck one near Fujairah.

These attacks have led to a sharp decline in the amount of crude oil passing through the Strait of Hormuz after the volume surged in September. According to Kpler, the average flows jumped as high as 15 million barrels per day in late September, but have now fallen to about 4 million barrels.

There are also concerns that the US will launch attacks against Iran even before the midterm elections. According to The Atlantic, Trump and some of his officials believe that the attacks will help to lower oil prices.

Bitcoin often drops when oil prices are in a strong upward trend because it is a sign that inflation will continue rising. Indeed, recent data show that gasoline and diesel prices have continued rising this month.

At the same time, the rising oil prices have led to a surge in US bond yields. Data show that the ten-year yield rose to 5.327%, while the 30-year yield jumped to 5.7%. There are signs that the latter figure is nearing the important resistance level of 6%. In most cases, Bitcoin tends to underperform the market because it does not pay a monthly reward.

US bond yields continued rising after the Federal Reserve published hawkish minutes, which showed that most officials expect the bank to hike rates.

Bitcoin Price Prediction: Technical Analysis

The daily chart shows that Bitcoin price has pulled back in the past few days, moving from $87,198 last week to the current $82,414. The current level is notable because it coincides with the highest swing in May and September this year.

This price is also alongside the neckline of the double-top pattern, a common bearish reversal sign in technical analysis. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has moved from the overbought level of 86 in August to the current 49.

Therefore, the price may continue falling as sellers target the key support level of $74,840, its lowest level on September 16.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. ETF flows, oil prices, interest rates and technical levels may change as market conditions evolve.