Nvidia Stock Forecast: Kioxia Warning and OpenAI Worries Cloud the AI Outlook

Nvidia stock faced fresh pressure on Nov. 2 following reports about OpenAI’s fundraising and Kioxia’s profit outlook. Investors questioned the sustainability of artificial intelligence infrastructure spending after technology shares declined sharply.

NVDA closed Friday at $204.64, nearly 16% below its October peak. The correction brought technical support near $200 into focus before Nvidia’s upcoming earnings.

Nvidia Stock at Risk After OpenAI’s Fundraising

Nvidia and OpenAI have a close relationship. OpenAI is one of the biggest consumers of Nvidia chips both directly and indirectly through its partners like CoreWeave. Nvidia has also taken a large equity stake in the company and is guaranteeing its data center in Ohio.

OpenAI is facing major challenges, the most recent of which is access to capital. The company has been raising $30 billion from venture capital firms after postponing its initial public offering (IPO) to next year. Its pitch to investors was that its valuation had jumped to $1.4 trillion.

However, these investors balked, with the company raising just $11 billion at a $1.25 trillion valuation. These financing issues come at a time when bond yields have jumped and most AI companies have dived. For example, Z.ai and MiniMax, its Chinese competitors, have all plunged by over 80% from their all-time highs.

Z.ai and MiniMax stocks in Hong Kong | Source: TradingView”>

OpenAI is also facing substantial competition, especially from open-weight AI companies like DeepSeek and Moonshot. This weakness will affect its investors, including Nvidia. Indeed, Softbank, another top investor, has dropped by over 50% from the year-to-date high.

Kioxia Guidance Points to Slowing Growth

Nvidia stock is also at risk after Kioxia, a top Japanese memory company, lowered its profit forecast for the year. The company now expects to make about $12.5 billion in profits this quarter, much lower than what analysts were expecting.

These numbers mean that the company’s business is slowing. In justifying the profit target downgrade, the company cited delivery schedules, with some customers pushing their orders to the March quarter.

The management also insisted that it was already sold out for 2027, with some of its customers placing orders for 2029.

These results came at a time when most memory companies, including big names like Micron, SanDisk, and Samsung Electronics, have slumped.

Looking ahead, Nvidia stock will react to earnings by some of the top companies in the tech industry. The most notable one is Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), which will release its numbers on Tuesday. Investors view these earnings as barometers of the AI space.

Arm Holdings, a company that Nvidia attempted to acquire, will also publish its results on Wednesday. Qualcomm will also publish its numbers.

Nvidia is usually the last big-tech company to publish its earnings. In this case, it will release its numbers on November 17, with analysts expecting another solid “beat and raise.” Focus will be on whether its guidance will be much higher than expected.

Nvidia Stock Price Technical Analysis

The daily chart shows that the NVDA stock price has slumped in the past few weeks. It dropped from a high of $243 in October to a low of $200 on Friday. It has already dropped below the important support level of $209.75, its lowest level on August 26 and September 14.

The stock has already dropped below the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA). It has also slumped below the Supertrend indicator.

Therefore, there is a risk that the stock will drop further following the OpenAI issues and the slowing Kioxia sales. If this happens, it may drop to $189.90, its lowest level in July.

This article provides market information, not investment advice. Stock investments carry volatility and potential losses.