Altseason 2025 Begins as Bitcoin Accumulation Surges Past $107K

Key Insights:

• Bitcoin exchange inflows plunge to lowest levels since 2020.
• BTC reclaims 50-day EMA, eyes breakout toward $120K.
• Institutions absorbing 7× more BTC than retail is selling.

Bitcoin’s accumulation trend continues to deepen, signaling early stages of what traders call “Altseason 2025.” Market participants are watching inflows, technical patterns, and historical cycles to time potential breakouts.

BTC price traded near $108,000 on Wednesday after bouncing 10% from its recent local low. Traders and analysts now see signs aligning with previous pre-altseason patterns—marking July as a possible turning point.

Exchange Flows Plunge as BTC Supply Tightens

Bitcoin inflows to Binance fell to 5,147 BTC on Tuesday, according to CryptoQuant data. That number is less than half the December 2024 level, when 13,200 BTC entered exchanges while Bitcoin was under $100,000.

Outflows from exchanges have also intensified, suggesting traders are opting for long-term storage. “The inflow/outflow ratio remains high, comparable to the end of 2023,” said Axel Adler Jr., adding it indicates strong demand for Bitcoin.

Overall exchange balances now sit at 2.92 million BTC—the lowest since June 2019. Adler noted average volume of flows (combined inflow and outflow) has dropped to 40,000 BTC per day, marking a 10-year low.

This drop signals a consolidation phase. The supply reduction could impact short-term liquidity, possibly leading to price surges if demand spikes.

Bullish Patterns Reappear Above Key Support

Bitcoin has reclaimed its 50-day exponential moving average (EMA) after briefly falling below it. Technical analyst Ibrahim Cosar called the reclaim a bullish signal, noting it has preceded 10–20% rallies in prior cycles.

“Bitcoin posted three consecutive daily closes above the 50-day EMA,” Cosar stated. He added that past breakouts following similar setups have led to multi-week rallies.

Analyst Jelle also pointed to a bullish pennant pattern on Bitcoin’s daily chart. “Break above $110K, and this flies a lot higher,” he wrote on X. If the pattern plays out, BTC could reach $165,000—around 54% higher than current levels.

An even more aggressive target came from Merlijn The Trader, who cited an inverted head-and-shoulders pattern. “Break $112K and there’s nothing stopping $BTC from flying to $140K+,” he said.

Altcoin Cycle May Follow Bitcoin’s Consolidation

Investor @0xklarck published a historical chart showing Bitcoin’s breakout patterns from prior accumulation zones. In 2021, altcoins surged up to 150x after Bitcoin rallied from $30K to new highs. The same chart now targets $210K by Aug. 2024.

According to Klarck, the current setup mirrors past cycles. Each accumulation period—typically spanning several months—preceded a full-blown altseason. The analyst pointed out July as a possible launchpad for such a move.

Klarck’s post has gained traction on X, with traders sharing the chart as a reference for upcoming market positioning. The visual outlines four Bitcoin cycles, each ending in exponential rallies followed by parabolic altcoin gains.

Institutions Absorb BTC as Retail Sells

On-chain metrics suggest whales are absorbing large amounts of BTC while retail investors continue to exit. IT Tech noted that wallets holding under 1 BTC declined by 54,500 BTC year-on-year. At the same time, large holders (over 1,000 BTC) added 507,700 BTC.

“Institutions are absorbing ~7× more BTC than retail is selling,” IT Tech stated. With only 450 BTC mined daily post-halving, the data points to a deepening supply squeeze.

This dynamic mirrors prior cycles where early institutional accumulation preceded massive price moves, followed by late retail entry at peak levels. “Retail FOMO hasn’t kicked in yet,” IT Tech added.

Macro Tailwinds Fuel Risk-On Narrative

Global M2 liquidity has started rising again, as noted by @mikalche. That trend historically aligns with major Bitcoin rallies, as excess capital seeks high-performing stores of value.

“Liquidity always finds a way,” he wrote. Bitcoin’s rise ahead of M2 expansion suggests it may be front-running broader macro tailwinds. Traders remain cautious, however, as geopolitical and monetary policy risks persist.

Still, with demand growing, exchange supply shrinking, and price holding above critical support, bullish sentiment is gaining momentum.

Disclaimer

This article is for informational purposes only and provides no financial, investment, or other advice. The author or any people mentioned in this article are not responsible for any financial loss that may occur from investing in or trading. Please do your research before making any financial decisions.