Altcoin Rally Could Begin in Weeks as BTC Dominance Reversal Nears

Key Insights:

• Bitcoin dominance reversed near 67%, a level that triggered past altcoin rally surges.
• Total 3 broke a 32-week range, signaling a 4-week altcoin pump phase may follow.
• Alt/BTC ratio mimics 2017 and 2021 setups, predicting a historic altseason.

Altcoins appear poised for a breakout, supported by multiple long-term chart formations and declining Bitcoin dominance. Key cycle patterns, total market structures, and ETF-driven flows all point to July 2025 as a likely turning point for a large-scale altcoin rally.

Altseason Setup Confirmed by Time Cycle on Total3

Trader Tardigrade’s time-based analysis of the Total3 chart revealed a repeatable 32-week consolidation pattern. In each of the last two cycles, Total3 spent exactly 224 days accumulating before entering a 28-day rally phase. That consolidation period concluded in early July 2025.

The pattern aligned not only in timing but also in candle structure, volume flow, and its position within the broader market cycle. Total3 had been printing higher lows in the last few weeks of consolidation, creating a base above $720 billion in market cap. Such a level reflected the launch area of the last 4-week pump, which took place towards the end of 2023.

With the same consolidation window now completed, analysts viewed the chart as signaling a fresh altcoin rally. The final pump boosted the Total3 value of $780 billion up to $1.14 trillion in four weeks. According to the structural similarities, assuming the same trigger, the resulting rally might have a similar scale.

In addition, there was compression in the momentum during the consolidation, with volatility suggesting accumulation. Once breakout candles formed in previous cycles, altcoins rallied broadly across sectors, including AI, DeFi, and gaming tokens. This trend suggested the setup for altseason had matured as July progressed.

Bitcoin Dominance Chart Reached Rejection Point Again

Meanwhile, Ito Shimotsuma noted that Bitcoin dominance hovered at 65.55% in early July, testing the upper resistance of a long-standing ascending channel. The BTC.D chart, spanning two years, showed that each touch at the upper boundary preceded sharp reversals. The level was designated with at least five red arrows, rejections going back to 2023.

Notably, every past rejection at this point resulted in altcoins outperforming Bitcoin for three to five weeks. That formation was still held in the last test, and dominance had a double top. Ito Shimotsuma has tracked this trend and connected it to historical capital rotation, which typically supported altcoin rallies.

However, if Bitcoin dominance reversed from the 65%–66% zone, it could shift $100 billion or more in capital toward altcoins. This condition often coincided with ETF-related sentiment plateaus and reduced BTC inflows. The timing aligned closely with the Total3 setup, reinforcing altseason expectations.

Altcoin-to-BTC Ratio Confirmed Altseason III Formation

Additionally, Long-term altcoin-to-BTC ratio charts reinforced the probability of an incoming altseason. Analyst Sensei identified two previous rallies. Altseason I in 2017 and Altseason II in 2021, where altcoins strongly outperformed Bitcoin. Both were preceded by BTC topping formations, followed by alt ratio breakouts.

In July 2025, the ratio chart printed a third accumulation zone labeled “Altcoin Season III.” The structure was similar to the previous cycles, as it was long basing, low volatility, and a support retest. The previous breakouts resulted in a ratio gain of more than 100% each.

This latest base had formed over nine months. The ratio’s compression suggested a significant move was building. Additionally, the breakout range aligned with BTC.D resistance and Total3 consolidation endpoints. All structural markers overlapped, confirming a strong confluence.

Total Market Reclaim Added Strength to Altcoin Outlook

Moreover, another confirmation was provided by the broader crypto total market capitalization chart. Analyst Moustach noted that the weekly long-term trendline drawn in early 2021 recovered in June 2025. In the past, this trendline served as support and resistance, indicating critical periods of cryptocurrency cycles.

The price had not been able to maintain above-trendline in 2023 and 2024. At the end of early 2025, several bounces were around the $2.3 trillion region. The market finally reclaimed this level with a strong weekly close in June. That reclaim sustained until week one in July, which confirmed the trendline.

Historically, once the total market cap reclaimed and held this structure, altcoins began to outperform. This reflected regained market strength and capital rotation away from Bitcoin. The current setup has gained more confidence due to the five successful retests since 2023.

Disclaimer

This article is for informational purposes only and provides no financial, investment, or other advice. The author or any people mentioned in this article are not responsible for any financial loss that may occur from investing in or trading. Please do your research before making any financial decisions.