Fed Rate Cut Odds Surge to 97% for September, Markets Turn Bullish

Key Insights:

• Fed Governor Chris Waller said that he expects multiple fed rate cuts in the coming three to six months.
• Bitcoin is consolidating near $110,000 after a 10% August pullback, as investors remain on edge due to historical September pullbacks.
• Analysts say a pause in gold’s rally could trigger a broader altcoin breakout.

Amid the ongoing macro uncertainty in the market, analysts are eagerly waiting for Fed rate cuts to provide a liquidity boost and drive the crypto market higher. Experts predict a 25 bps rate cut at the upcoming FOMC meeting on September 17. With a massive 97.6% probability of rate cuts, investors are preparing for a major pivot in monetary policy.

Fed Rate Cut Chances Surge to 97.6%

According to data from the CME Fed Watch Tool, markets are assigning a 97.6% probability of a Fed rate cut in September. With less than two weeks until the FOMC meeting, traders view policy easing as nearly certain, expecting it to fuel another round of liquidity-driven rallies.

During his recent CNBC Interview, Federal Reserve Governor Chris Waller said rate cuts should begin at the upcoming FOMC meeting, adding that inflation is not a concern. He stressed that the Fed does not need to follow a fixed sequence and can adjust based on economic conditions.

He also floated the possibility of multiple rate cuts over the next three to six months. Last week, he stated he would support a 25 bps cut on September 17 and left room for a 50 bps cut if August payroll data comes in weaker than expected.

What Happens to Bitcoin Price and Crypto Market?

Following its all-time high in August, at $124,500, Bitcoin price has been moving sideways over the past two weeks. Currently, BTC is flirting with $110,000, with no clear trajectory in sight.

Historically, September has been the month of correction for the broader crypto market and Bitcoin. This usually follows with a strong rally in Q4. However, popular crypto analyst Michael van de Poppe cites an interesting shift happening in recent years.

Crypto analyst Michael van de Poppe noted that Bitcoin has not seen a September correction in the past three years, with pullbacks instead occurring in August. This year, BTC fell nearly 10% last month.

He said that if Bitcoin price breaks above $112,000, the odds of a deeper correction will reduce as the September 17 FOMC meeting approaches with rising chances of Fed rate cut. Van de Poppe added that he is accumulating during the current dip.

Leading crypto research and analytics platform CryptoRank further cited strong inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs. In a recent message on the X platform, they noted:

Will Altcoins Rally Begin Soon?

So far, Ethereum has been leading the broader altcoins market rally amid strong ETH treasury inflows, institutional inflows in spot Ether ETFs, etc. However, the rest of the altcoin sector has yet to catch up, which could spread into a full-blown altcoin season. However, an interesting observation is that the altcoins index is rising steadily and has recently reached 63. A Fed rate cut this month could further propel this higher.

Popular analyst Michael van de Poppe noted that for a strong altcoin rally, it’s important for the gold rally to stall. Gold price is already up 37% year-to-date, outperforming BTC, which has printed 22% gains since the beginning of 2025.

Poppe said the recent underperformance of altcoins is tied to rising gold prices, which signal investors’ reluctance to take on risk. He noted that markets are at a pivotal stage and suggested gold may be nearing a short-term peak. Van de Poppe expects it could trigger the next altcoin rally if that plays out.