AVAX Price Risks New Lows After $16 Breakdown: Drop to $9 Next?

AVAX price kept sliding after losing a significant support level this week. Market conditions were still heavy with sellers in tight control on multiple timeframes. Traders now check whether the Avalanche price may encounter further losses as key structures break down.

AVAX price Weakens After Losing Critical Support

AVAX price fell from the key $16 level after several weeks of steady pressure. Ali Charts mentioned that this zone served as support several times in past cycles.

His chart showed several rebounds along this line during major market corrections. However, Avalanche broke through the level convincingly, ripping a key defensive layer off.

Because the structure failed, Ali now warns of a deeper decline to the $9 region. His projection describes a possible downward path full of lower highs and rejections. AVAX price is still under every noticeable resistance band, and sellers are very much in control.

Until buyers retake previous peaks, the overall trend remains strongly bearish. This breakdown constitutes one of the greatest structural losses for Avalanche in recent months.

Long-Term Trendlines Confirm Bearish Structure for AVAX Price

Avalanche’s multi-year chart showed even more weakness for the current decline. Cryptollica had a falling trendline that rejected all major rallies since 2021.

His weekly structure showed a constant pattern of lower peaks forming beneath this diagonal barrier. As the price moved lower, Avalanche slipped again into its familiar demand region.

The arrangement of the setup means long-term exhaustion in several cycles. Cryptollica said the $10-$13 zone has historically been a good area for buyers. Yet recent tests seem much weaker than previous interactions.

Because the asset is still below the descending trendline, there has been no higher timeframe reversal. Traders, therefore, consider the continuing decline to be structurally intact. A reclaim of the trendline is a requirement before any strong bullish narrative comes back.

Channel Structure Indicates Controlled Downtrend

Another perspective was taken by Don, who charted Avalanche within a large descending channel. His multi-year channel displayed a distinct top-to-bottom slope that directs all price swings.

At press time, the AVAX price was trading within the lower half of this formation. This confirmed further bearish momentum. Because of the years that the channel has held, traders respect its boundaries.

Don explained that every rally for the last two years stalled near the middle of the channel, or upper boundary. Price action is now pulled to the lower edge with added risk of further declines. Yet he also said that strong bounces often begin from this lower boundary.

If buyers can defend this channel level, the Avalanche price could make a short-term move to the midpoint. However, without a greater volume, momentum remains limited. The channel, therefore, serves as a roadmap for controlled volatility.

Cycle Patterns provide a Long-Term Alternative

Despite the dominant bearish structure, some analysts do see longer-term opportunities. Lonely Rooster cited Avalanche’s dip below $10 in July 2021, which led to a movement towards $146.

He said the current decline may be similar to the early phase of that cycle. His chart has a similar bottoming shape forming across the broader structure.

He argued that market cycles can repeat themselves even if the macro conditions are different. According to his opinion, Avalanche could create a delayed expansion phase into 2026. However, this viewpoint needs better catalysts and a better market environment.

Traders, therefore, see the cycle comparison as speculative but worth observing. AVAX price may eventually respond to improvements in the broader market. For now, weakness is still in charge of the near-term trend.