HYPE Price Forecast as ETF Outflows and Perps Volume on Hyperliquid Fall

HYPE price rebounded in the past few days, moving from last week’s low near $51 to about $55.40.

The recovery occurred despite continuing HYPE ETF outflows and weaker monthly activity across the Hyperliquid exchange.

HYPE traded near $55.50, with a circulating market capitalization of approximately $12.3 billion. The token remained about 28% below its June record near $76.70.

The recent advance could extend if HYPE holds above its long-term moving average. However, a bearish chart pattern leaves the rebound vulnerable to another decline.

HYPE ETF Outflows are Continuing

The HYPE token has jumped amid ongoing risk-on sentiment, pushing most risk assets higher. US stocks have just jumped to a record high, while Bitcoin and top altcoins have crawled back. Bitcoin rose to $64,000, while the market capitalization of all tokens rose to $2.2 trillion.

The token has jumped even as the spot HYPE ETFs have shed assets in the past few days. These tokens shed over $964k on Monday after losing over $1.8 million on Friday last week. In total, these funds have had outflows in the last four consecutive weeks.

Grayscale’s HYPG ETF is still the biggest HYPE ETF with over $108 million in assets. It is followed by Bitwise’s BHYP and 21Shares’ THYP, which have $92 million and $52 million in assets under management.

In contrast, spot Bitcoin ETFs had over $170 million in inflows on Monday, while spot XRP funds added over $1.1 million on the same day.

It is unclear why these funds have shed assets in the past few days. One possible reason is that investors are booking profits after the token jumped by 280% between its lowest and highest levels this year.

Key Hyperliquid Metrics Have Weakened Lately

Recent data shows that key Hyperliquid metrics have deteriorated in the past few weeks. DeFi Llama data shows that the network handled over $208 billion in July this year, down sharply from June’s $250 billion.

This retreat happened as the crypto winter continued and after the US and Iran reached a ceasefire agreement. The agreement dragged crude oil prices lower, a notable thing since Hyperliquid has become a major player in the oil markets during the US-Iran war.

The falling volume dragged its network fees in July. It made over $55.1 million in fees last month, down substantially from the $80 million in fees a month earlier. At its peak, Hyperliquid was making over $144 million a month.

The same trend is happening in its layer-1 network. Data shows that the network’s layer-1 network has dropped from a record high of $2.65 billion in September last year to the current $1.24 billion. It has dropped to the lowest level since January this year.

Hyperliquid’s layer-1 network’s stablecoin market cap has fallen to $6.2 billion from a record high of $7 billion. Its network fees plunged to $414,000 in July from June’s high of $1.2 million.

HYPE Price Prediction: Technical Analysis

The daily chart reveals that the Hyperliquid token bottomed at $50.42 and then started going up. It moved above the crucial resistance level of $52.50, its lowest swing on June 11 this year.

HYPE token has retested the 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement level. Also, it has found substantial dynamic support that coincides with the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA).

The risk, however, is that the stock formed a triple-top pattern, a common bearish reversal sign. This means that the ongoing recovery is a temporary move.

Therefore, the most likely HYPE price forecast is bearish, with the initial level to watch will be last week’s low of $50.4. A move below that level will point to more downside, potentially to the 50% Fibonacci Retracement level of $49.