Bitcoin Aims for February Gains: Will 2025 Follow Historical Suit?

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  • Institutional buying followed Bitcoin’s dip amid trade war and inflation fears.
  • February post-halving trends show gains, but 2025 started with losses.
  • Bitcoin rebounded as investor sentiment hit a yearly low.

Bitcoin (BTC) and the crypto market recently faced intense selling pressure. This happened as escalating trade war tensions and inflation concerns pushed U.S. traders to withdraw capital from risk assets.

The uncertainty led to a surge in sell orders before Monday’s market open, causing the Bitcoin price to decline sharply. However, as Bitcoin’s value dipped, institutional investors capitalized on lower prices, facilitating a swift recovery.

This strategic accumulation helped reverse earlier losses, bringing Bitcoin’s value back into positive territory. At the time of writing, Bitcoin was changing hands at $100,878, marking a 6.58% gain over the past 24 hours.

Despite this rebound, the Bitcoin price remained down 1.54% for the week. Market activity indicated that institutional investors took advantage of the price drop, contributing to the recovery.

Bitcoin Price Tends to Jump in February

Amid this recovery, an analyst posted on X examining the monthly performance of Bitcoin from 2013 to 2025. The analyst also outlined percentage gains and losses for each February.

According to Rekt Capital, February has historically delivered substantial gains, particularly in post-halving years. His data indicated that Bitcoin’s average February return was +14.13%, with a median return of +12.21%. Historically, this trend has resulted in a double-digit upside.

Source: X

Bitcoin price has had a substantial upside in past post-halving years. This included +61% in 2013, +23% in 2017, and +36% in 2021. However, February 2025 has begun with a negative performance of -4.25%, deviating from past post-halving trends.

Despite the early decline, the month remains in progress, leaving room for potential reversal. Also, Bitcoin has historically declined in February only in 2014 (-31.03%) and 2020 (-8.6%).

This aligned with a bear market year and a halving year, respectively. While February 2025 began with a fall, previous post-halving tendencies indicate the possibility of a rebound if historical patterns persist.

How Market Sentiment Impacted Bitcoin Price?

Meanwhile, market sentiment has been crucial in Bitcoin’s recent movements. Data from Santimenthighlighted that negative sentiment toward Bitcoin had reached its highest level over a year.

By February 3, bearish social media commentary significantly outweighed positive discussions. Historically, the BTC price has frequently experienced strong rebounds when market sentiment turns predominantly negative.

Bitcoin Price Performance | Source: CoinGecko

Santiment noted that this marked one of six instances in the past year where negative sentiment exceeded bullish commentary. That often signaled a buying opportunity.

Following the release of Santiment’s report, Bitcoin had already climbed back above $96,000. This worked out since the Bitcoin price was back over $100K.

Positive Investor Behavior

Bitcoin ownership trends provided additional insights into market behavior. IntoTheBlock data indicated how holders are allocated according to their investment terms.

It categorized holders into three groups. This included long-term holders (1 year or more), mid-term holders (1-12 months), and short-term traders (less than one month).

Source: IntoTheBlock

The data indicated that long-term holders increased by 0.75%. This suggested sustained confidence in Bitcoin’s long-term value. Mid-term holders rose by 1.21%, reflecting growing investor interest and market expansion.

Meanwhile, short-term traders declined by 10.97%. This further pointed to reduced speculative activity and a more stable market structure.

Disclaimer

In this article, the views, and opinions stated by the author, or any people named are for informational purposes only, and they don’t establish the investment, financial, or any other advice. Trading or investing in cryptocurrency assets comes with a risk of financial loss.

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