Key Highlights:
- Bitcoin price saw a sharp decline after a brief rally, with analysts predicting one more drop.
- On-chain data shows Bitcoin remains in a distribution phase, with no shift to accumulation.
- Experts expect long-term growth, citing increased adoption and institutional participation.
Bitcoin price slipped below $83,000 on Tuesday, March 4, erasing gains from a weekend rally that had briefly pushed prices higher. The downturn came after an initial surge driven by U.S. President Donald Trump’s announcement regarding a strategic crypto reserve.
While the market reacted positively to the news, momentum quickly shifted amid trade wars in North America. That led to a sharp decline across the broader crypto market.
The total market capitalization, which had reached $3.2 trillion on Sunday, March 2, fell back to $2.9 trillion before experiencing further losses. By Tuesday, March 4, the overall crypto market valuation had dropped to $2.8 trillion, with major altcoins recording double-digit losses. Meanwhile, BTC price reflected a 9.32% decline over the past 24 hours and an 8.55% drop over the past seven days.
Further Downturn Before Recovery
Amid the decline, analysts monitoring the market suggest that Bitcoin could see another decline before a potential rebound. One market analyst, Kaleo, indicated that the recent price action—where Bitcoin and altcoins experienced a sharp upward movement followed by a complete retrace—could signal a deeper pullback.
The possibility of Bitcoin dropping to the mid-$70,000 range remains, potentially triggering a final sell-off for altcoins.
Despite the current volatility, the analyst expressed optimism about the long-term outlook, expecting strong market performance over the next few years. A further decline could create new buying opportunities, particularly for investors looking to enter at lower price points.
On-Chain Data Signals Extended Distribution Period
On-chain data also suggests that Bitcoin remains in a phase of net distribution. According to blockchain analytics firm Glassnode, Bitcoin’s Accumulation Trend Score has remained below 0.5 for 58 consecutive days. This trend indicates that large entities have continued reducing their holdings, a pattern consistent with previous market cycles.
Historical data shows that distribution phases have lasted an average of 65 days over the past year, while accumulation phases have averaged 57 days. Bitcoin has spent 196 days in a distribution phase and 170 days in accumulation over the same period. The current trend remains within historical patterns, but analysts have yet to confirm a shift toward accumulation.
With the latest Accumulation Trend Score reading at 0.9, Glassnode noted that large holders remain in a net distribution mode. This pattern suggests that institutional and large-scale investors have yet to resume strong accumulation. This factor could influence short-term price movements.
Forecasts for Bitcoin Price Remain Optimistic
Other experts also remain optimistic in their expectations for Bitcoin price despite the current downward trend. Taking part in CNBC’s Squawk Box on March 3, an analyst, Tom Lee said that BTC could surge to $150,000 by the end of the year. The Increased expectations are attributed to firms such as Citadel and others upping their participation in the crypto business.
Looking at past Bitcoin price trends, it is evident that prices have declined sharply, only to begin rising again. Notably, at the end of last year, instability in the Bitcoin market was on the rise. Besides, in February 2025, the OG crypto dropped to almost 24% to reach about $78,000 from the previous value of $102,000. Experts had expected the correction and estimated that the price might reach as low as $62,000 in the month.
It emerged that Bitcoin was usually volatile within short trading intervals, and it rose mostly within a 10-day trading period. Although Lee did not name an exact Bitcoin price target for 2025, previous prognoses located Bitcoin’s maximum surge within the range of $200,000 to $250,000.
Meanwhile, President Donald Trump’s stance on cryptocurrency continues to influence market sentiment. Over the weekend, his remarks regarding a U.S. strategic crypto reserve contributed to the market’s brief rally. Additionally, the White House is preparing to host a cryptocurrency summit on Friday, March 7. This event can certainly draw attention from both investors and policymakers.
Disclaimer
The views and opinions stated by the author, or any people named in this article, are for informational ideas only, and they do not establish financial, investment, or other advice. Investing in or trading crypto assets comes with a risk of financial loss.
