Key Highlights:
- Avalanche struggles to regain momentum as selling pressure dominates, with weak recovery attempts.
- Short- and mid-term holders exit AVAX, while long-term holders risk becoming bag holders.
- Technical indicators confirm bearish momentum, with weak RSI and MACD signaling further downside.
Avalanche crypto has faced persistent downward pressure over the past month, struggling to regain momentum despite temporary recovery attempts. The asset steadily declined after reaching a peak of over $44.00 in January.
A significant drop occurred in early March, with prices plummeting from approximately $22.00 to nearly $15.00. Following a brief recovery, AVAX returned to the $18.00-$20.00 zone, which is stabilizing.
Avalanche Crypto Performance Metrics
Recent performance data reflects the asset’s weak market position. Over the past 24 hours, Avalanche crypto declined by 0.7%, maintaining a bearish daily outlook. However, on a seven-day timeframe, the asset showed a 6.2% gain, indicating a short-term rebound from recent lows.
Over 14 days, AVAX recorded a 6.7% decline, reinforcing sustained selling pressure. Meanwhile, a 30-day drop of 26.5% highlights the strong bearish dominance in the market.
Amid this decline, analysts have assessed possible future price movements. One expert, Ali Martinez, analyzed AVAX/USDT on Binance’s perpetual contract. His analysis focused on a daily period from December 2023 to March 2025.
According to his chart, Avalanche crypto could experience further declines if it fails to hold the $18.40 support level. A breach of this level could push the asset to $11.50 and potentially $7.00, aligning with his broader bearish outlook.
Contrasting Signals in the Market Structure
Meanwhile, another analysis based on a four-hour timeframe presents a contrasting perspective. A trader identified as Ak47 shared an AVAX/USDT chart on Binance, highlighting key resistance zones and technical structures.
While the descending trendline continues to act as resistance, the price recently attempted a breakout. However, it faced rejection within the $19.50-$20.00 supply zone.
Lower highs and lower lows dominate, indicating that bears remain in control. AVAX must break above the $20.50 resistance level to shift this trend.
Despite the consolidation, the trader maintained a bullish long-term outlook. He expects Avalanche crypto to hit a new all-time high by the end of 2025.
The sentiment is based on the possibility of a breakout above the resistance zone. This could indicate a shift in market momentum.
AVAX Market Participation Trends
Ownership distribution data from IntoTheBlock revealed shifting market behavior among AVAX holders. Short- and mid-term holder activity has declined, reinforcing a bearish outlook.
The number of cruisers—investors holding the token for one to twelve months—declined by 6.32%. This indicates that a significant number of them have exited their positions.
Additionally, trader activity—representing those holding for less than a month—dropped by 3.78%, pointing to reduced short-term speculative interest. These changes indicate declining enthusiasm, which could contribute to lower volatility and reduced trading demand.
It was a completely different trend for long-term holders—those holding for over a year. Their numbers surged by 7.72%, reaching 6.22 million addresses.
While this shows investor retention, investors failing to exit a position at a loss in hopes of net profit could be considered bag-holding. Some long-term holders may eventually capitulate and add selling pressure if the sentiment weakens.
Avalanche Crypto Technical Indicators
Further technical support for the bearish outlook is also available. Avalanche crypto daily chart from TradingView showed weak price action. Moving ahead, it highlighted low momentum indicators and no buying pressure on the asset.
Relative Strength Index (RSI) was at 38.58, a bearish territory far from the neutral 50 level. The RSI has been declining and will continue declining if it falls to 30, an oversold region.
Finally, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator was also negative. This confirmed a weakness in the buying momentum.
The current value of the MACD line was -1.71; the signal line was -1.94. Moreover, the histogram had a weak value of 0.22. Ultimately, there is no bullish divergence to prevent this bearish trend from going beyond extremes.
Disclaimer
This article is for informational purposes only and does not provide any financial, investment, or other advice. The author or any people mentioned in this article are not responsible for any financial loss that may occur from investing in or trading. Please do your research before making any financial decisions.
