Key Insights:
- Bitcoin drops 9.86% in 24 hours, and trades below key $75K support level.
- Whale wallets rise 4.6%, but price fails to show upward momentum.
- Analysts compare current pattern to pre-bear market signals.
Bitcoin’s recent decline has fueled concerns about the strength and sustainability of the current crypto bull run. The asset dropped 9.86% over the past day, falling to $74,841.27, according to CoinMarketCap. Trading volume surged 331% to $58.53 billion, reflecting intense sell-side activity, while Bitcoin’s market capitalization fell to $1.48 trillion.
Meanwhile, on Bitcoin’s on-chain data, large holders or ‘whales’ are accumulating more. However, the price hasn’t reacted with an uptick, which causes doubts about the market sentiment and possible bear market signals.
Bitcoin Price Breaks Below Support Zones
Bitcoin broke below the 200-day moving average on the daily chart, a key technical level. The chart by Ali shows that Bitcoin fell to around $76,764 after failing to stay above the trendline and 200DMA. The bearish crossover with the shorter-term average is a frequent sign of a possible continuation of a downtrend.
Bitcoin has now posted three consecutive red candles on the weekly chart, erasing gains from the March leg of the crypto bull run. If $75,000 fails to hold, analysts expect BTC to test support zones between $70,000 and $72,000.
However, Price Isn’t Reacting, Whilst Smart Money Is Accumulating
Even though the price has dropped, Glassnode data reveals increasing institutional interest. In the last two months, the number of wallets with at least 1,000 BTC has increased by 76 entities. As of January 29, 2025, there were 1,649 such entities. That number grew to 1,725 by April 4, up 4.6%.
The trend usually implies that smart money—hedge funds and institutional investors—are buying BTC. But Bitcoin’s price has dropped almost $30,000 from its recent high of $109,114, which it touched on January 20.
Analyst Midas observed this disconnect and compared it to patterns seen before other bear markets. He said on X: “Smart money is buying BTC, price isn’t moving.” “Every major bear market was preceded by this.”
Crypto Bull Run Faces Test Amid Structural Breakdown
In the past cycles of Bitcoin, large drawdowns followed large crypto bull rallies. As DeFiMidas shared this chart, Bitcoin has crashed -72%, -68%, -53%, and -73% after tops. The recent drop may be an early sign, but the current cycle has yet to confirm its peak.
However, from a historical view, it is unclear whether Bitcoin has already topped out for this cycle or is just correcting before another move.
The timing of previous cycle tops also lines up with the red flags seen on the chart, which typically happen after halving events and parabolic runs. In the current market structure, Bitcoin may be in a similar cooling phase if key support zones fail to hold.
More Volatility Ahead Suggested by Market Conditions
Trader activity is up over 331% in the last 24 hours, and the sudden increase in volume is mostly driven by selling. This is common in panic selling or strong liquidation events.
However, the divergence between rising whale holdings and falling price complicates the outlook in the market. It implies whales are buying the dip, but the retail and smaller investors are selling out.
This adds to the bearish signals as Washigorira notes that a new CME futures gap has formed between $79,600 and $81,900. The market often fills in these gaps, so price may try to go back to that zone before continuing in either direction. But if Bitcoin cannot recapture that level, then the bearish trend will continue.
The next few sessions are critical. Unless Bitcoin reclaims the $80,000 level with strong volume, the crypto bull run narrative may be replaced with concerns of a broader reversal. For now, sentiment remains mixed, with caution dominating the short-term outlook.
Disclaimer
In this article, the views and opinions stated by the author or any people named are for informational purposes only. And they don’t establish the investment, financial, or any other advice. Trading or investing in cryptocurrency assets comes with a risk of financial loss.
