Key Insights
- RSI divergence suggested a possible Bitcoin price rebound from current support.
- Futures volume was up, but open interest signals risk-off sentiment.
- Analysts eye $70K as potential bottom amid macroeconomic pressure.
Bitcoin (BTC) price remained trapped between bullish signals and deepening bearish pressure. This created a tense standoff as traders debated whether $70,000 or $83,500 would mark the next significant level.
Captain Faibik identified a falling wedge pattern and bullish divergence on the daily timeframe. The analyst suggested BTC could rebound toward $83.5K if current support holds.
The chart highlighted Bitcoin price bouncing close to the lower trendline. It also showed the relative strength index (RSI) forming higher lows.
RSI Hints at Bottom—but History Says Bitcoin Price Lower Still
The daily RSI of BTC recently fell below 28, a level historically associated with extreme oversold conditions. According to trader Rekt Capital, such lows do not immediately mark a bottom.
“Whenever Bitcoin’s Daily RSI crashed into the sub-28 RSI levels—that wouldn’t necessarily mark out the price bottom,” the analyst said in an April 7 post. “Historically, the actual price bottom would be -0.32% to -8.44% lower than the price when the RSI first bottomed.”
At press time, Bitcoin price traded around $77,400. Rekt Capital noted that a repeat of the -8.44% drawdown below RSI bottom levels could send it near $70,000.
He emphasized that the $70,000 level aligned with Bitcoin’s 2021 cycle top. It might form the correction’s final floor.
TradingView data revealed the RSI’s latest rejection at 50. The weekly chart displayed 43, marking its lowest point since the 2023 bull run started.
Market Structure Shows Conflict Between Bulls and Bears
While bullish divergence exists, the market structure remains weak. BTC has closed three consecutive daily candles below $80,000—its worst stretch since November 9, 2024. The price has dropped 5.6% in seven days, showing a clear break from recent support levels.
At the same time, futures trading volume has surged 64%, according to Glassnode. The rise points to renewed trader activity but doesn’t tell the whole story.
Open interest declined 19% in the past two weeks, suggesting many traders are closing positions. CoinGlass reported $2 Billion in liquidations between April 6–8, showing traders are leaning defensive.
Some market watchers view this mix as transitionary. One source noted that the spike in volume could hint at accumulation. However, falling open interest suggests a risk-off approach.
Bitcoin Price Trends: Liquidity Zones & Double-Top Projections
Some traders view the latest pullback of Bitcoin price as a mirror of August 2024. Ted, a pseudonymous trader on X, pointed out that both corrections originated from global macroeconomic factors.
He observed nearly identical declines, measuring approximately 32% to 33% from their peak levels.
Charting Guy predicts that BTC will form a double-top pattern later this year. He anticipated a significant decline, dropping prices to $30,000–$40,000 by mid-2026.
He argued that the current structure echoes prior cycle tops, with a prolonged rally likely delayed until late 2028.
At the same time, liquidity zones could influence short-term moves. X user @Next100XGEMS highlighted strong liquidity at $88,000–$89,000 zone. He said,
Bitcoin always follows where the liquidity is.” That range could draw traders if price rebounds in the coming weeks.
Macro Headwinds and Institutional Flows Add Complexity
U.S. macroeconomic pressures are becoming a significant concern. Economist Timothy Peterson warned that deteriorating economic indicators could push Bitcoin price down to $70,000.
He highlighted widening high-yield credit spreads as a critical risk factor. This development is often associated with a broader shift to risk-off sentiment.
Despite that, spot BTC exchange-traded fund (ETF) outflows remain muted. Data from Sosovalue showed just under $300 Million exiting ETFs over the past two weeks.
Equity markets experienced over a 20% decline in valuations. In comparison, institutional responses have remained relatively stable. The divergence highlights institutional investor confidence or at least a lack of panic, even as retail sentiment sours.
Bitcoin price now sits at a critical crossroads. Bulls point to falling wedge patterns and oversold RSI levels as signals for a rebound toward $83.5K. Bears warn that historical RSI behavior and weakening support zones suggest a deeper slide to $70,000 remains in play.
Disclaimer
In this article, the views and opinions stated by the author or any people named are for informational purposes only, and they don’t establish the investment, financial, or any other advice. Trading or investing in cryptocurrency assets comes with a risk of financial loss.
