Key Insights:
- XRP wave structure suggests the bull cycle may not be over yet
- Technical support holds above 50-week EMA, matching past bull runs
- Whale accumulation rises as retail interest continues to drop
Technical signals are strong and XRP’s price long-term cycle seems to be playing out. As the top is in for many, analysts have a $10 conservative and $20 optimistic scenario based on Elliott Wave patterns, EMA support, RSI behaviour, and market dominance trends.
Wave Patterns Suggest Ongoing XRP Price Bull Cycle
The weekly chart of XRP looks familiar, in accordance with the Elliott Wave theory. Five clear waves were present in the previous cycles. Wave III grew 2,610% in one of those, and Wave V added a smaller but sharp rise. Before the price corrected over several years, these waves formed the full cycle.
XRP price has a similar structure in the current market. Wave III took the price up by 862% from around $0.31 to $3.03. This was corrected, and analysts marked it as Wave IV. History repeats, and if it does, a last Wave V could propel the token to $10, just as it did in previous cycles.
However, the analyst thinks that Wave III might not be finished. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has not touched the red resistance zone twice, as it did during the last peak. This time, the accumulation period was also longer. If XRP is indeed forming a longer Wave III, these signs may be the indication. If that is the case, then the final Wave V could extend into early 2026 and target between $15 and $20.
XRP Price Technical Support Remains Strong on Weekly EMA
In the past bullish phases, the 50-week Exponential Moving Average (EMA) was a key level. Throughout bull cycles, this EMA has historically been used as support by XRP price. The same trend repeated itself in the recent rally. However, the price bounced back up after a brief touch, maintaining its long-term bullish structure.
The movement of RSI also behaved in a similar way. In previous cycles RSI reached the overbought zone during Wave III and Wave V. The RSI tapped the resistance once but has not yet made the second peak in this cycle. Analysts commented that the RSI stayed above the accumulation zone and had created a higher low. These signs were in line with the idea that momentum may not be exhausted yet.
XRP Price Dominance Chart Shows Room for One More Move
The chart XRP.d, which tracks XRP’s share of the total crypto market, behaved as it normally does. The dominance chart had two major upward moves in the past, both of which topped out near the resistance area. In recent days, XRP dominance completed one sharp move from the 2023 low and surged above the 4% mark.
XRP dominance was flat within an accumulation range between 2021 and 2024. This year there is a breakout, so the second impulse may have started. The dominance RSI was around 59 and held above key support. If XRP follows the same two-impulse pattern, it could rise further, but not as high as previous highs because of the larger crypto market today.
However analysts pointed out that dominance is not always correlated with price. It doesn’t matter if XRP’s dominance lags, it can still reach new highs. It could mean that other altcoins will outperform, but XRP will still hit technical targets.
Whale Accumulation Emerges as Retail Interest Fades
Meanwhile, according to Google Trends data, interest in XRP fell over the past day. It reached a value of 100 but dropped steadily after that. At the time of writing, interest was around 50, indicating that retail traders were not paying as much attention.
However, large buyers were active despite the lower interest. It was reported that a whale transaction of 4.74 million XRP from Coinbase to an unknown wallet. This move was important, as it happened at a time when retail activity was low.
Crypto analyst Steph_iscrypto stated, “Majority of retail is leaving XRP,” indicating that a large portion of traders were leaving or losing interest. This type of quiet phase has historically come before major price moves, especially when long-term patterns remain intact.
The final expansion phase could be possible, according to market data. The conservative $10 target or the optimistic $20 level may be achieved depending on the length of this cycle and how retail sentiment shifts in the months ahead.
Disclaimer
This article is for informational purposes only. Crypto investment involves inherent risks due to the volatility in price. Readers should conduct their research before making any investment decision. Also, you can consult a crypto expert before investing in cryptocurrencies.
