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The Bitcoin price is trying to find its feet after a rough week. BTC fell from the $81,000 to $82,000 region on October 29 and slid toward $76,000 before buyers stepped back in.
BTC now trades close to $78,300, and one well-followed analyst thinks the worst may already be behind it.
Past cycles do not offer much relief. After the 2018 US midterm election, BTC dropped from roughly $6,400 to near $3,200 within weeks.
In 2022, the vote landed in the same week FTX collapsed, and the BTC price sank to around $15,500 days later. Crypto analyst Michaël van de Poppe believes this time could play out differently.
Why Van de Poppe Expects Bitcoin to Rally After the US Midterm Elections
Van de Poppe said on X that he is “extremely bullish on Bitcoin from here.” He had earlier predicted a “Sell the rumor, Buy the news” setup around the midterm outcome, and he now thinks the market has bottomed after the latest sweep of the lows.
His argument centers on political calm. “All economic markets fare well with a calm electorate, not by a wild president doing tricks day in, day out,” he wrote.
In his view, constant policy surprises from the White House made risk almost impossible to price. With the balance of power back in equilibrium after the US midterm election, investors can start pricing risk again.
He also pushed back on the idea of a post-election pullback. “I don’t think we’ll see a correction after the midterms,” he said, adding that with Trump as an outlier president, “it might also be the case that we’ve already seen the correction.”
In a separate post, the analyst laid out a wider macro case. He expects Brent oil to fall below $96, Treasury yields to drop, tech stocks to recover and the US dollar to weaken.
A softer dollar and lower yields tend to favour risk assets, and he sees that backdrop lifting the Bitcoin price in the weeks ahead.
Bitcoin ETFs Extend Outflow Streak to Three Days
Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $115.56 million in net outflows on November 3, according to SoSoValue data. That followed $398.62 million in outflows on November 2 and $643.33 million on October 30.
The three-day streak pulled about $1.16 billion out of the funds. Cumulative net inflows fell from $57.62 billion on October 29, the last day of inflows, to $56.47 billion.
Van de Poppe expects “some interesting ETF flows” in the coming week, and a return to inflows would give any Bitcoin price recovery a much firmer footing.
Can Bitcoin Price Form a Higher Low and Resume Its Uptrend?
Van de Poppe’s call hinges on one condition. “If Bitcoin prints a higher low here, I would assume that we’re going to print a weekly green candle and are going to see a strong run towards the end of the year,” he said.
His 4-hour chart shows BTC consolidating between $76,500 and $78,800 since the October 29 breakdown.
Buyers defended the $76,258 to $76,520 zone several times, and that area is the first spot to watch on any pullback.
Below it, $74,955 lines up with the September low and stands out as the deeper floor. A break there would put $71,557 to $71,984 in play.
Bitcoin Price Prediction: Could BTC Stage a Strong Rally Toward Year-End?
The Bitcoin price now sits just below two resistance blocks at $78,814 and $79,613. Van de Poppe wants both levels to flip into support.
A clean break above $79,613, followed by a successful retest, could push it to $81,230 and then $83,031.
A rejection in this zone would be different. If BTC fails there and falls under $76,258, the BTC price could go back to $74,955, which would put the higher-low thesis at risk.
For now, the setup rests on two things. The Bitcoin price needs a high-volume close above $79,613, and ETF flows need to turn positive again.
If both happen, the year-end rally Van de Poppe expects could break the pattern of weak post-midterm months seen in 2018 and 2022.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Cryptocurrency investments carry substantial volatility and potential losses. Readers should conduct independent research before making investment decisions.
