Key Insights:
- Bitcoin must break $86K resistance to confirm bullish reversal.
- Futures sentiment remains bearish despite recent price rebound.
- Trading volumes and ETF flows show weak investor demand.
Bitcoin price hovered around $84,000 on Wednesday, as bulls continued to battle resistance near the $86,000 zone. After bouncing from $75,000 earlier this month, BTC has struggled to confirm a clean trend reversal, with key technical and sentiment indicators still flashing caution.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin traded at $83,996. The daily exponential moving average 50 (EMA50), currently at $85,300, remains a critical short-term resistance.
$86K Wall Proves Hard to Break
Bitcoin faces strong resistance in the $86,000 area, where both technical indicators and sell-side pressure converge.
According to analyst Ali, two dense supply zones exist between $81,440 and $86,430. CoinGlass data supports this view, with a heavy concentration of sell orders near $86,300–$86,500, acting as a ceiling for price advances.
Alphractal’s Alpha Price model, which factors in realized cap and on-chain sentiment, also marked $86,300 as a key barrier. A decisive move above this level could shift near-term sentiment back to bullish.
Futures Sentiment Weakens Despite Price Recovery
While spot price has recovered from its April lows, Bitcoin’s futures market tells a different story.
Data from CryptoQuant shows the BTC Futures Sentiment Index has hovered around 0.4 since Feb., far below levels associated with a confident uptrend. For context, the index hit 0.8 during bullish peaks in late 2023.
Bitcoin’s futures sentiment dropped even as the price touched $101,000 in early Feb. Analysts warn this disconnect could delay any sustained upward movement.
Trading Volumes Tell a Story of Hesitation
Spot volume has hovered around 30,000 BTC per day, while derivatives markets move about 400,000 BTC daily, according to CryptoQuant. That’s well below the trading volume seen during the June–July 2021 rally.
Apparent demand, which tracks net exchange inflows and outflows, remains low despite a slight recovery. Analysts caution that current demand could simply reflect a pause in selling pressure—not a true bullish shift.
Meanwhile, ETF data confirms the trend. Since April 3, spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded over $870 million in outflows. A small inflow appeared on April 15, but broader investor appetite still looks limited.
Supply-Side Metrics Don’t Paint a Bullish Picture
On the supply side, liquidity remains thin. Glassnode reported a slowdown in Bitcoin’s realized cap growth to 0.80% per month, down from 0.83%. This suggests fewer new entrants are injecting capital into the network.
BTC balances on exchanges fell to 2.6 million coins—the lowest since Nov. 2018. While that can reduce short-term sell pressure, it also limits available liquidity for rapid upside moves.
Independent market analyst Michael van de Poppe flagged rising global M2 supply as a macro factor worth watching. Historically, BTC price has followed M2 growth with a 12-week delay.
Long-Term Predictions Face Pushback
Crypto Seth predicted BTC could reach $140,000–$180,000 in 2025 before correcting to the $50,000–$70,000 range in 2026.
“Bookmark this and revisit in 2026,” he wrote, calling for a long-term cyclical move.
However, veteran trader Peter Brandt dismissed such technical projections as unreliable.
“Trendlines are the LEAST significant,” Brandt posted. “A break doesn’t signal a trend shift. Sorry.”
Bitcoin’s structure suggests caution, not conviction. Bulls must push through $86,300 with real spot volume—not leverage-driven moves—to validate any trend change.
Disclaimer
In this article, the views and opinions stated by the author or any people named are for informational purposes only, and they don’t establish the investment, financial, or any other advice. Trading or investing in cryptocurrency assets comes with a risk of financial loss.
