Key Insights:
- Bitcoin reclaims $100K as retail sentiment shifts toward ‘higher’ calls across social platforms.
- Reserve Risk remains low, while Coin Days Destroyed suggests long-term holders are becoming active.
- Strong support sits at $94.7K with over 195K BTC accumulated, while resistance builds near $101.6K.
Bitcoin has broken through the $100,000 level for the first time since February 3, 2025, as bullish sentiment dominates both retail and institutional segments. However, new metrics now question whether the rally can hold, given the social volume spikes and long-term holder activity that may indicate a cooling phase.
Social Sentiment Climbs as Crowd Calls ‘Higher’ Surge
Retail participation has been on a strong uptrend since Bitcoin broke above $100K according to data from Santiment. The word “higher” in crypto-related discussions had a sharp increase around May 8.
At the same time, there was a sharp decline in fear related mentions which had previously fueled buying activity in the May 5 session.
This change of sentiment occurs as social calls for price to go “above” reached their highest in weeks. Such optimism in the past has been able to draw new buyers, but it has also tended to indicate temporary tops when overextended.
Santiment pointed out that retail momentum may only be adding fuel, “an overwhelming amount of calls related to ‘higher’ or ‘above’…like we’re seeing now,” can often be a sign of short-term exhaustion.
Reserve Risk Still Low, but Long-Term Holders Are Moving Coins
Although sentiment has been heating up, long-term indicators indicate that Bitcoin’s network is still in a rather low-risk zone. Reserve Risk, a metric that is a combination of investor confidence and price volatility, is still far below historical red zones that are usually in line with cycle tops.
Alphractal’s chart indicates that Reserve Risk is holding in the green band, which means that the price is not overextended according to long-term holder behavior.
Nevertheless, the metrics of VOCDD and MVOCDD, which monitor coin age and destruction, have begun to increase. These signals indicate that older coins are being shuffled again, which is frequently a sign of a change in sentiment by experienced holders.
In the past, long-term holders’ movements have corresponded with broader market movements. These events may either be a lead-up to more robust rallies or at peaks when holders start distributing to newcomers.
Bitcoin Price Accumulation Zones Form Below $100K as Resistance Emerges Near $102K
Meanwhile, on-chain order book data from Glassnode shows high demand below the $100,000 level. Just around $94,719, almost 195,320 BTC was gathered, creating a visible support floor.
This concentration indicates strong buying in previous consolidation stages and may act as a defense level in case prices fall.
However, a resistance wall is forming above current levels. Approximately 81,910 BTC have been gathered at $101,672, which is a zone where the sellers can enter. This level is only 2% above spot, and traders are very keen to see whether bulls can hold on to momentum in this area.
In addition to price strength, Coin Days Destroyed (CDD) has begun to move higher. CDD monitors the volume of older BTC moved after long periods of inactivity, giving a window into the reaction of seasoned investors to price fluctuations.
New data shows CDD increasing after several months of low activity. This surge might be a sign of a return to the fold by early holders or profit-taking at higher prices.
When added to Reserve Risk signals, it indicates that while the market is still not at cycle top conditions. Long-term capital is becoming more active.
In the past, surges in CDD either resulted in consolidation phases or were followed by further upward movements if they were accompanied by increased demand.
Disclaimer
This article is for informational purposes only and provides no financial, investment, or other advice. The author or any people mentioned in this article are not responsible for any financial loss. That may occur from investing in or trading. Please do your research before making any financial decisions.
