Key Insights:
- Bitcoin holds above $90K support, CVDD model points to a potential top near $120K
- Futures funding rate remains low at 0.007%, showing limited long-side leverage.
- Options skew drops to -6.1%, signaling rising demand for bullish call positions.
Bitcoin price is nearing $105K, holding above key support at $90K. On-chain data indicates a potential BTC surge to $120K, supported by low futures funding rates.
Additionally, options skew shows strong bullish sentiment for BTC. With leverage under control, the market trend continues to look steady.
CVDD and Price Structure Suggest Room for Upside
Bitcoin price moves have been consistent with past trends, as indicated by the CVDD model. The chart shows that the token trades above the $89,415 level, part of the second accumulation phase.
At press time, BTC was priced at approximately $99,000. Meanwhile, the CVDD stood at $34,154, with the Accessing Tops level reaching $124,088.
A steady increase in the black “Accessing Tops” curve suggests that Bitcoin could reach approximately $120,000. The potential top at $120,000 will remain relevant if the token stays above $90,000.
Lack of new “HOT” signals indicates that there hasn’t been significant selling pressure or distribution at these prices. This model has consistently predicted primary market turning points in the past.
A significant top signal was given when Bitcoin traded around $73,000 in January 2024. It has since rebounded and is approaching the level where the model predicts a potential top.
Derivatives Market Still Cautious Despite Bitcoin Price Climb
Glassnode’s data indicates that perpetual futures funding rates are currently below average. The average funding rate is 0.007%, equivalent to an annualized rate of 7.6%.
This is lower than its historical average of 0.01%. Traders are not overleveraging their long positions as Bitcoin approaches $105,000.
Funding rates indicate how much it costs to maintain a long position in futures. Increased rates indicate traders are taking on substantial long positions, while lower rates suggest they are more careful.
The rally of Bitcoin from $60,000 to almost $105,000 in just six months has not led to overuse of leverage. This could indicate a more stable market because rallies fueled by conservative leverage often have a longer lifespan.
Futures markets are more sensitive to sudden changes in the market. The lack of excessive leverage in futures markets indicates that this rally hasn’t yet entered a phase of extreme speculation. If the rally persists, demand for derivatives may increase.
Options Market Sentiment Turns Risk-On
The options market suggests investors are becoming more optimistic about Bitcoin’s prospects. The 25 Delta Skew for 1-month options has decreased to -6.1%. This marks the third instance in the past year that the skew has fallen from -4% to -9%.
Call options are assigned a higher implied volatility than puts. It is now more expensive to buy call options than put options. Glassnode notes that negative skew often occurs when investors anticipate the market to rise.
The current skew is similar to when the cryptocurrency was priced at roughly $60,000. Prices have risen significantly since that time.
The skew pattern’s return in May 2025 suggests traders anticipate more BTC gains. This reinforces the likelihood of Bitcoin reaching its $120,000 target.
Bitcoin Market Cap Projection and Long-Term Growth Path
Growth forecasts for BTC over the long term are optimistic, as the power curve shows that it will likely surpass the value of all above-ground gold.
Bitcoin continues to adhere to the pattern established by its past performance. The chart suggests that BTC’s market cap may surpass the total value of all above-ground gold by February 2033.
Gold’s total market cap is estimated to be approximately 6,953 million ounces. The chart predicts that Bitcoin will eventually outshine the entire gold market in terms of value.
Bitcoin’s growth over time has been closely tracked by its power curve. This indicates that it has maintained a steady pace relative to gold.
The bottom part of the chart displays how much the price deviates from its historical trendline. Bitcoin is still following its historical pattern, suggesting it is not overvalued. This forecast suggests that Bitcoin’s ongoing cycle may continue to expand before concluding.
Disclaimer
This article is for informational purposes only and provides no financial, investment, or other advice. The author or any people mentioned in this article are not responsible for any financial loss that may occur from investing in or trading. Please do your research before making any financial decisions.
