Analyst: Cardano Pattern Could Push ADA to $1.77 Ahead of Airdrop

Key Insights:

• Cardano’s Midnight airdrop will distribute 24 billion NIGHT tokens, free of charge.
• ADA shows strong price momentum following crossovers of the 50-week EMA.
• Cardano sees increased network activity with rising active addresses.

The Midnight airdrop is set to begin next week. It is opening a new chapter for the Cardano ecosystem amid rising network metrics and technical developments.

The subscription period for the airdrop is expected to run from July 16, 2025, to October 29, 2025. During this period, 24 billion NIGHT tokens will be distributed to the public at no cost.

There are no defined minimum or maximum limits for participation. The offer structure depends on two key phases: the Glacier Drop and the Scavenger Mine.

Both phases are central to how the rollout unfolds. Their technical readiness could affect the overall timeline. The issue price for the NIGHT token remains at zero, ensuring free access to participants.

Subscription Model and Airdrop Phases

According to the announcement, the NIGHT token airdrop will be free without entry thresholds or payment requirements. This distribution method emphasizes accessibility, although the official schedule remains subject to change.

The Glacier Drop and Scavenger Mine’s readiness claim phases will determine whether the subscription window will hold or shift. These two components form the core of the airdrop’s execution, which is critical in managing how the tokens reach participants.

The offer does not outline any upper cap on individual claims, reinforcing the open nature of the distribution process. Technical developments within the broader Cardano ecosystem have added context to this event.

The NIGHT airdrop announcement comes when Cardano’s native asset ADA tests a significant technical level. A chart shared by market analyst Deezy highlights a weekly price analysis of ADA against the U.S. Dollar.

Central to this chart is the 50-week exponential moving average (EMA), a widely watched trend-following indicator.

Technical Trends Surrounding the Cardano 50-Week EMA

ADA’s current price movement has positioned it close to the 50-week EMA. It’s a level that previously signaled major rallies. The chart reveals two earlier breakouts above this line.

In December 2023, ADA crossed above the 50-week EMA, resulting in a 128.47% price gain over 126 days. The token moved from $0.45392 to $1.05 during that period.

In May 2024, another crossover occurred, followed by a rapid 212.98% increase in just 28 days. This lifted the price from $0.65816 to $2.05.

At the time of the analysis, ADA hovered near $0.65816, testing the EMA again. Deezy’s chart outlines that similar breakouts in the past have led to significant upward momentum.

Previous EMA crossovers have averaged gains of around 170%. A similar move from ADA’s current level could push its price to approximately $1.77.

This projection relies entirely on historical performance. It highlights the critical role of the 50-week EMA in ADA’s technical outlook.

While price action remains a key area of focus, on-chain activity provides additional insights. Data from IntoTheBlock presents a detailed snapshot of Cardano’s network usage. This shows increased engagement across several categories over the past week.

Cardano Network Engagement and Holding Trends

New user activity has shown a positive trend. The New Addresses (NA) metric recorded a 4.79% increase in seven days, indicating a growing inflow of new participants. Simultaneously, Active Addresses (AA) grew by 11.99%, reflecting higher overall interaction on the blockchain.

In particular, the most significant increase (12.26%) was recorded in Zero Balance Addresses (ZBA) related to non-existent or empty wallets.

This shift may point to dormant wallets reactivating or newly created addresses awaiting incoming funds. Other differences are observed in addressing behavior per holding duration.

An image from the IntoTheBlock chart on address classification divides holders into three segmentations: Holders, Cruisers, and Traders. The Holders category, constituting individuals holding ADA for over a year, grew by 1.81%.

Such a sustained rise indicates long-duration security on the part of the current actors. The Cruisers represent holding periods between one and twelve months. It increased by an impressive 7.65 %, as more and more mid-term investors showed up.

Short-term traders, on the other hand, have exhibited further behavior. The traders category (wallets with less than a month holding ADA) fell by 11.75%. Such a loss implies less short-term speculation, replaced with more long-term activity.

Disclaimer

This article is for informational purposes only and provides no financial, investment, or other advice. The author or any people mentioned in this article are not responsible for any financial loss that may occur from investing in or trading. Please do your research before making any financial decisions.