Bitcoin Value Holds $115K as Scarcity Index Flashes Rare Signal

Bitcoin (BTC) traded near $115,983 after weekend volatility pressured support levels. Market watchers flagged $115,100 as the critical threshold to maintain momentum.

“$BTC needs to hold $115,100; if it does, next target sits around $136,900,” trader Ak47 posted on X.

The pair hit $116,800 during the final Wall Street session of the week, its highest level since Aug. 23. Still, order book data showed bids stacked just below $115,000.

“Pretty clear price is being walked down here yet again going into a new week,” trader Skew noted, pointing to liquidity depth under the market.

Stablecoin Flows Point to Altseason Potential

Beyond spot levels, analysts tracked stablecoin dominance as a leading signal for capital rotation.

“If $BTC is to have a nice move later this year, stablecoin dominance likely goes down to 3%,” Polaris_XBT argued. “Now that is more than enough for a juicy altseason.”

Historically, stablecoin market share peaked near 5% before prior euphoric rallies. A move to 3% would imply traders deploying capital into risk assets.

This backdrop reinforced expectations of broader altcoin strength, should Bitcoin stabilize above immediate support.

Scarcity Index Spikes on Binance Withdrawals

Fresh data from Binance highlighted a rare jump in the Bitcoin Scarcity Index. The metric spiked for the first time since June, a move often linked to sudden buying pressure.

According to Arab Chain, the spike suggested large-scale withdrawals or reduced sell orders. “This type of spike is often linked to the entry of large investors,” the report noted, referencing whales and institutions.

Last June, a similar pattern persisted for several days, pushing Bitcoin to $124,000. A sustained positive reading could indicate the start of accumulation. But a sharp reversal, as seen recently, may signal speculative activity or liquidations.

Bitcoin Scarcity Index. Source: CryptoQuant

“The index jumps when immediate buying power exceeds available supply,” Arab Chain added. “If it remains positive for consecutive days, that typically reflects the beginning of a strong accumulation phase.”

Traders Outline Next Technical Objectives

Market sentiment stayed cautious. Analysts stressed reclaiming earlier levels as a prerequisite for higher prices.

“The goal isn’t for Bitcoin to break $117k in the short term,” Rekt Capital explained. “The goal is for Bitcoin to reclaim $114k into support first.”

Rekt Capital added that a weekly close above $114,000 would be bullish, potentially setting the stage for renewed upside.

Popular traders agreed that current action was orderly, with bids cushioning price near $115K while sellers capped progress at $117K.

Whale Activity Adds Selling Pressure

Lookonchain flagged renewed selling by a long-term Bitcoin whale. Two wallets tied to an address holding BTC for eight years deposited 1,176 BTC, worth $136 million, into Hyperliquid.

The whale had previously exchanged over 35,991 BTC, worth $4 billion, for Ether in August. After a brief pause, selling resumed as Bitcoin touched $116,000.

The move sparked questions over shifting “smart money” positioning. Analysts warned that whale liquidations often add downside pressure, especially when markets test key support.

Lookonchain noted the whale’s prior swap left them holding Ether at a ratio still below historical peaks. The ETH/BTC pair traded near 0.0401, recovering 6% over the past month.

Key Levels Define the Next Move

Bitcoin remained in a tight range defined by liquidity depth at $115K and resistance at $117K.

If $115,100 holds, momentum traders target $136,900 in the coming weeks. Stablecoin rotation and scarcity index trends may provide additional confirmation.

But whale activity and macro events kept the market cautious. Traders now await the Fed decision and broader accumulation signs before committing to fresh highs.