Key Insights
- MSTR stock price has formed a break-and-retest pattern, indicating further upside potential.
- Bitcoin price has remained above $120,000 during the current crash.
- The two will also benefit from the ongoing BTC ETF inflows and Fed cuts.
MSTR stock price has lost momentum this week. It has declined from Monday’s high of $367 to its current level of $320.
This price is approximately 30% below the year’s highest point, indicating it remains in a bear market. Still, it has formed a bullish pattern, pointing to an eventual bullish comeback.
MSTR Stock Price Has Formed a Highly Bullish Pattern
The daily timeframe chart indicates that the MicroStrategy stock price has declined significantly over the past few months. This crash occurred even as a surge in Bitcoin prices happened, which pushed it to its record high this week.
MSTR stock bottomed at $292.50 this month and then rebounded to $367 as Bitcoin bounced back. $367 was a significant level, as it coincided with the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA).
On the positive side, the MSTR share rebound happened after it formed the highly bullish falling wedge chart pattern. The pattern consists of two descending, converging trendlines. A bullish breakout occurs just as they are about to meet.
A bullish breakout is confirmed when the asset rebounds and breaks above its previous high. It then retests the upper trendline, which this stock has done. This is known as a break-and-retest pattern, and is a common bullish continuation sign.
Therefore, if the pattern works out, it will likely resume the uptrend in the next few days. A rebound could see it retest the critical resistance level at $430, its highest level in May this year.
There is a risk in buying MicroStrategy stock. The spread between the 50-day and 200-day EMAs has narrowed. This narrowing can trigger a death cross pattern. A death cross is a standard bearish technical signal.
Supporting the bearish view is the fact that the RSI indicator is falling and has yet to reach the oversold level.
Bitcoin Price Bullish Flag Pattern Supports a MSTR Stock Rebound
Another bullish catalyst for MSTR stock is Bitcoin holding strong at $120,000. Despite the recent crash, it has struggled to fall below this key support. It has also remained above the 50-day and 200-day EMAs.
Notably, there are signs that the coin is forming a bullish flag pattern. This consists of a vertical line and a descending channel. In most cases, this pattern typically leads to more upside over time.
Bitcoin Strong Fundamentals Support More Upside
Meanwhile, the MicroStrategy stock price will be supported by the ongoing fundamentals of Bitcoin. One of the most important numbers is the continued inflows of Bitcoin ETFs. They have been in a strong uptrend this year.
SoSoValue data shows that spot Bitcoin ETFs have added over $2.7B in inflows this year, despite the ongoing crash. Inflows have happened in the last 9 consecutive days.
Altogether, these funds have added almost $6B in the last two weeks. This brings the cumulative total inflows to over $62.7B. BlackRock’s IBIT ETF is also nearing the $100B asset level.
Another bullish factor for Bitcoin and MSTR is the US government shutdown. The shutdown has raised economic uncertainty. It has also increased the chances of a 0.25% Fed rate cut.
This expectation could boost both Bitcoin and MSTR stock prices. It has already slashed rates once this year, and the economic situation has worsened since then.
MSTR stock has pulled back in recent days as investors booked profits. The decline followed Bitcoin’s rally stalling after its all‑time high of $126,500. Still, this pullback could be part of a break-and-retest pattern. This suggests that it will recover in the coming weeks or days.
Additionally, Bitcoin has formed a bullish flag pattern and is supported by other bullish catalysts. This includes soaring ETF inflows and the potential for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates later this year.
Crispus is a distinguished Financial Analyst at, bringing over 12 years of expertise in cryptocurrency markets, specializing in Bitcoin and altcoins. Renowned for his sharp insights at the nexus of market trends and breaking news, Crispus delivers actionable analysis to empower investors. His work is prominently featured across leading platforms, including BanklessTimes, CoinJournal, HypeIndex, SeekingAlpha, Forbes, InvestingCube, Investing.com, and MoneyTransfers.com, cementing his reputation as a trusted voice in the financial world.
