Key Insights
- Bitcoin price faces its worst November since 2019 as cycle momentum weakens.
- Analysts say leverage flush cleared weak holders before 2026 positioning.
- Cathie Wood repeats $1.5M forecast as sentiment returns to 100K levels.
Bitcoin price traded near $91,000 on Wednesday. A volatile month pushed the market into its deepest November losses since 2019. Data showed a 16.9% monthly decline, raising fears of a deeper correction as key indicators weakened across multiple timeframes.
Some analysts argued the drawdown created a cleaner setup for early‑2026 accumulation. Leverage and weaker holders exited the market.
The debate intensified after Cathie Wood repeated her long-term price target. She said BTC could reach $1.5 million by 2030. Traders also highlighted renewed optimism around a possible December “Santa rally,” historically averaging 4.75% gains.
Bitcoin Price Suffers Mid-Cycle Stress as Key Indicators Turn Lower
Bitcoin price hovered near $91,300 after sharp intraday swings trapped both bulls and bears during the week. Binance data showed the market entering a fragile mid-cycle phase.
Momentum declined during this phase. Heavy resistance appeared near the 30-day, 90-day, and 200-day moving averages.
The Z-Score fell to -1.81, its lowest level since March. The reading indicated that BTC traded below its expected historical value relative to prior cycles. Analysts viewed this as confirmation of weakening medium-term momentum as selling pressure increased around major resistance levels.
The cycle structure added further pressure. The market sat 586 days after the last halving, placing Bitcoin deep into the second half of the cycle.
This stage historically delivered slower returns and sharper pullbacks. The cycle_return indicator sat in negative territory, reflecting weaker returns compared to the strong rally earlier in 2025.
Local support remained concentrated near $90,000, creating what analysts called a “pivotal zone.” A breakdown below this level could pave the way for a deeper retracement. Holding above it kept the prospect of a recovery toward resistance in play.
Cathie Wood Renews $1.5M Forecast as Sentiment Swings Sharply
Market sentiment saw dramatic intraday shifts. Ark Invest CEO Cathie Wood said the Bitcoin price could still reach $1.5 million by 2030. ThatMartiniGuyYT posted her comments on X.
He framed the forecast as part of a broader long-term outlook. He emphasized it was not a response to short-term volatility.
His post read: “CATHIE WOOD SAYS BITCOIN WILL HIT $1.5M BY 2030 AND THAT THE REAL BULL RUN IS YET TO BEGIN.”
Yet the forecast arrived as sentiment hit its weakest levels in weeks. Coin Bureau noted that the Crypto Fear and Greed Index jumped to 20. It was up from 10 the previous week when BTC touched $80,000.
The outlet said current sentiment resembled conditions seen when Bitcoin price last traded near $100,000. The contrasting signals showed the emotional divide across the market.
Traders weighed Wood’s long-term outlook against short-term data showing declining momentum, reduced liquidity, and rising exchange inflows.
Worst November Since 2019 Tests Bitcoin Price Ahead of December
BTC remained on track to close November down 16.9%, its worst monthly performance since 2019. According to CoinGlass data shared in your source, Bitcoin lost 17.3% in November 2019 and 36.5% in November 2018.
The last negative November came in 2022, when the Bitcoin price fell 16.2% during ongoing market stress.
The steep decline renewed debate about whether historical seasonality still applied. ThatMartiniGuyYT pointed out that Bitcoin historically averaged +4.75% gains during December. He claimed that a “Santa rally” often emerged when volatility spiked ahead of year-end.
While traders debated the impact of seasonality, the data confirmed that BTC rarely ended November with such a deep drawdown. The combination of heavy deleveraging, distressed selling, and weakening technical indicators contributed to shaping the month’s bearish tone.
Bitcoin Price Heads Into December With a High-Pressure Setup
Bitcoin price approached December at a critical turning point. The $90,000 support zone held the market’s immediate direction.
A breakdown increased the risk of further losses, given the weak Z-score and declining cycle returns. A rebound above key moving averages offered a path toward gradual recovery.
Traders now monitored liquidity, exchange reserves, and broader risk sentiment. With November producing the worst monthly result in years, the market prepared for a tense start to December.
Long-term forecasts like Wood’s $1.5 million target still captured attention. However, short-term pressures continued to define the immediate landscape.
Moses K is a crypto journalist covering markets, regulation, and blockchain trends. He has written for The Coin Republic, Coinchapter, Cryptopolitan, Cryptotale, Coinspeaker, and MPost. Known for his concise, data-driven reporting, Moses focuses on price analysis, on-chain metrics, and policy developments shaping the global digital asset landscape.
