Key Insights
- Kalshi recorded $5.8 billion in volume for November, beating Polymarket’s $3.7 billion.
- The prediction market platform is launching contracts on the Solana blockchain.
- Kalshi is facing legal issues over its sports betting contracts.
Prediction market platform Kalshi has seen its spot volume increase to $5.8 billion in November, according to data from Artemis. This represents a 32% increase compared to last month, when it had $4.4 billion.
Kalshi Maintains Frontrunner Status at Polymarket Expense
The rise in Kalshi spot volume continues to outperform its major competitor, Polymarket. Between October and November, Polymarket also saw a 23.8% growth, going from $3.02 billion to $3.7 billion.
The two platforms collectively account for nearly $10 billion in trading volume during the month, demonstrating the rapid growth of the sector. Kalshi’s presence in the US appears to be a big contributor to its success as well as its retail market penetration through Robinhood.
Together, Kalshi and Polymarket have established a duopoly in the sector, accounting for over 90% of the total volume. Interestingly, Polymarket is set to re-enter the US market by next year.
However, that could change by next year, especially with the arrival of new players on the market. DraftKings and FanDuel are both developing their own standalone prediction market platforms, which are set to launch next year.
Robinhood also acquired a majority stake in Ledger X, a regulated derivatives exchange that was once part of FTX. With the deal, the brokerage firm is also venturing into a sector where it is already partnering with Kalshi. It is unclear how this would affect their partnership.
However, that has not affected investors’ expectations about Kalshi’s potential. The company raised $1 billion in a funding round in November that involved Sequoia Capital, CapitalG, Paradig,m, and a16z.
The fundraise sent Kalshi’s value to $11 billion. This represents a significant leap from the $5 billion valuation following its $300 million funding round in October.
Kalshi Launch Contracts on Solana
Meanwhile, the prediction market platform is now selling tokenized versions of its contracts on the Solana blockchain, according to a CNBC report. The move to offer its contracts on the blockchain network signals an effort to attract crypto users.
It will also bring Kalshi into a section of the prediction market that Polymarket has long dominated. The platform noted that crypto will mean more liquidity and plans to serve institutional clients through decentralized exchanges Jupiter and DFlow.
Kalshi Head of Crypto John Wang said:
“There’s a lot of power users in crypto. This is about tapping into the billions of dollars of liquidity that crypto has, and then also enabling developers to build third party front ends that utilize Kalshi’s liquidity.”
Kalshi Faces Legal Troubles Over Sports Contracts
Despite the positive developments, Kalshi is currently embroiled in legal troubles over its sports betting contracts. Some states and Native American tribes have sued the platform for offering unlicensed sports betting. Sports events account for one-third of its contracts, according to reports.
A court recently ruled that the platform must be subject to Nevada gaming rules. This effectively means it cannot offer its sports events contract in the state. The ruling could set a precedent for how sports event contracts will be regulated in the US, given Nevada’s influence in the gambling sector.
Already, Kalshi has lost a similar case in Maryland while winning one in New Jersey. Both have been appealed, a sign that the Nevada decision will likely follow suit.
Interestingly, the platform is also facing a proposed class action lawsuit in New York for allegedly claiming to offer legal sports betting. The lawsuit has also accused Kalshi market maker of betting against customers.
Moses K is a crypto journalist covering markets, regulation, and blockchain trends. He has written for The Coin Republic, Coinchapter, Cryptopolitan, Cryptotale, Coinspeaker, and MPost. Known for his concise, data-driven reporting, Moses focuses on price analysis, on-chain metrics, and policy developments shaping the global digital asset landscape.
